Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, one of the few Republicans in Washington who has not criticized House Democrats for spending months negotiating for changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, told reporters Oct. 22 he recently started to worry about time running out.
House Trade Subcommittee Chairman Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., a member of the working group working to get changes to the new NAFTA to suit Democrats, said "there's been some hiccups" in negotiations with the administration, but a deal is achievable if the administration wants it. "Everybody's trying to figure out how to do it," he said. And, given the amount of staff work, and the pace of meetings -- two this week with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer -- if the Democrats and USTR don't reach agreement "it's not going to be for lack of effort."
About 350 companies, trade associations and local manufacturing groups and chambers of commerce are urging Congress to ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement "as soon as possible this autumn." The letter, led by the National Association of Manufacturers and signed by giants like Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Caterpillar, IBM, GE, Honeywell, Bayer and Bristol-Myers Squibb, was sent Oct. 15. It said that ratification "is essential to promoting certainty and growth for manufacturing businesses." Volvo North America and Mahindra Automotive America signed the letter, but BMW and Mercedes -- whose supply chains would likely have to change to meet stricter rules of origin -- did not. The letter referred to trade facilitation -- though not explicitly higher de minimis levels in Canada and Mexico, in saying that the USMCA will eliminate red tape at the border, and make "it easier for small and medium-sized businesses to sell into these critical markets."
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., said Mexico has made "another significant step forward" by promising to fully fund new labor courts that will be integral to major labor reform in that country. Neal said he, fellow working group member Rep. Jimmy Gomez, D-Calif., and committee member Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., met with the Mexican president for an hour and 45 minutes during the recess, an hour longer than scheduled.
The conventional wisdom in Washington is that a House ratification vote for the new NAFTA can be held before Thanksgiving, according to Dan Ujczo, chairman of Dickinson Wright's cross-border law practice. Ujczo, whose firm works with auto manufacturers and who follows the politics of North American trade closely, said when his clients did fly-ins, Republicans, trade associations, and Democrats outside the Progressive Caucus all said that. But Ujczo doesn't think that's true.
Business and labor leaders and government insider panelists agreed that the U.S.-China trade war will be difficult to unravel, but disagreed on how quickly Democrats could -- or should -- resolve outstanding issues on the NAFTA rewrite. The trade panel Oct. 10, hosted by Fiscal Note, included Clete Willems, former White House deputy assistant to the president for international economics, who said that although it pained him to say it, "The political conditions in both countries are just not conducive to the big deal."
Many Republicans in Congress have been accusing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of dawdling on ratifying the new NAFTA, and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said that if it doesn't come to the floor of the House by the end of October, "I don't think we're gonna get it."
House Democrats and the Trump administration are “on a path to yes” to a bill for ratifying the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters Oct. 2. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., leads a USMCA working group that recently sent the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative a “counteroffer to what the administration has proposed,” Pelosi said. “When we can arrive at a place where not only do we have our issues addressed, but that we have enforceability that will make it real for America’s families and farmers, then we can go down that path.” President Donald Trump says he wants USMCA “to go forward, and we are awaiting the language on enforceability” from USTR, Pelosi said. She’s “hopeful” that House Democrats and USTR will reach agreement on USMCA enforceability, “and I’m hopeful that it will be soon,” she said. “We have a good working relationship” with USTR, she said. “Believe me, the quiet you hear is progress.”
Even as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce gives a nudge to House members by advertising for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 12 districts, a top official is expressing confidence that the negotiations are on track. Neil Bradley, the chief policy officer, told reporters Oct. 1, "Our conversations with Democrats and Republicans lead us to believe we are close." He added, "We’ve kind of set a deadline we believe that USMCA should be passed before Thanksgiving. We picked that based off where we thought the progress was in the negotiations."
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., who leads the working group tasked with getting fixes to the NAFTA rewrite, said that Democrats and the U.S. trade representative have "reached agreement on a couple of substantial issues." Neal, who earlier told International Trade Today that he hopes to have a vote on the deal before Thanksgiving, said the progress at the staff level during the two-week recess that starts Sept. 30 will be critical. He said he hopes that when the working group returns, "we'll have a chance to see the goal line."