In addition to tariff hikes expected in 2025, trade experts are also thinking about the 2026 review of USMCA, and the investment and supply chain planning uncertainty that is likely to follow.
USMCA
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement is a free trade agreement between the three countries, also known as CUSMA in Canada and T-MEC in Mexico. Replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, the agreement contains a unique sunset provision where, after six years (in 2026), any of the three parties may decide not to continue the agreement in its current form and begin a period of up to 10 years where USMCA provisions may be renegotiated.
The Commerce Department published notices in the Federal Register Nov. 12 on the following AD/CV duty proceedings (any notices that announce changes to AD/CV duty rates, scope, affected firms or effective dates will be detailed in another ITT article):
International Trade Today is providing readers with the top stories from last week in case they were missed. All articles can be found by searching on the titles or by clicking on the hyperlinked reference number.
LIVONIA, Michigan -- The consuls general of Mexico and Canada in Detroit encouraged auto industry players to lobby the next administration, to let it know that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods would be disruptive to the integrated auto industry, and to push for the administration to comply with a panel ruling on auto rules of origin.
Automakers, chipmakers and broad business groups asked the Bureau of Industry and Security to give their industries more time to adjust to new requirements to move supply chains out of China and report on what companies are in their connected vehicle supply chains.
CBP will bolster a number of existing initiatives in the coming months aimed at preventing the import of products made with forced labor, said Katie Woodson, assistant director within the operations and forced labor divisions of CBP's Office of Trade, during a panel on forced labor at last week's Western Cargo Conference.
The Aluminum Association is pleased by the hike in Section 301 tariffs on aluminum products -- even though it applies to more products than it wishes were covered -- and says Mexico's reporting is helping with trade remedies covering Chinese, Russian and Belarussian steel.
Canada is studying several policy and legislative options to strengthen its forced labor enforcement, including one that could establish new import traceability requirements for certain goods and another that could require importers to pay all fees associated with imports detained for forced labor.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is seeking applications for people who can serve on dispute panels reviewing final determinations in antidumping or countervailing duty proceedings when the exporter is from Mexico or Canada. The service period will begin April 1 and run through March 31, 2026. Applications are due by Nov. 29.
Officials from Squire Patton Boggs said that if Donald Trump returns to the presidency, a 10% tariff or higher on a vast swath of imports could come very quickly, but what wouldn't be subject to the tariffs is not yet clear.