USMCA

The U.S. International Trade Commission, hosting lobbyists on the new NAFTA for a second day Nov. 16, tried to sort out whose perspective was most germane on the trade pact's impact, as producers and customers, manufacturers and importers and even producers and producers disagreed about the policy impact of what the U.S. trade representative did -- or didn't do -- in the negotiations.

Two House Democrats said NAFTA led to outsourcing to Mexico, and that they would not support a rewritten version of the trade deal unless it eliminates the incentives for outsourcing jobs by U.S. companies. Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., ranking member of the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, said "the jury is still out as to whether this deal meets my standard for a better deal for American workers."

Determining how the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will change the economics of auto and auto parts manufacturing in America is critical for the U.S. International Trade Commission, which is responsible for estimating the economic effects of the pact. Of all the exports from the U.S. to its NAFTA partners -- $419 billion in 2015 -- $67 billion is automotive, according to the Center for Automotive Research. In the most recent data, the U.S. imported more than $58 billion in new vehicles from Mexico and Canada through the first eight months of 2018, and exported more than $18 billion new vehicles to those countries, according to the International Trade Administration.

When an agriculture shipment is held up at the border, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement says a country must let the shipper know what the problem is within five calendar days. That's better than the deadline under the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Randy Gordon, CEO of the North American Export Grain Association, pointed to that as an example of the reduction in non-tariff barriers that the new pact would bring that would help agriculture interests. He also praised the ways the pact addresses sanitary and phytosanitary standards, and said the countries should be able to resolve conflicts more quickly as a result.

Americans and Canadians are talking about ending U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and the Canadian countermeasures that followed, but Canadian Deputy Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman said much remains uncertain. "Whether or not that will come to a successful conclusion before the signing is something I cannot predict," said Hillman, a veteran trade negotiator sent to Washington specifically for the NAFTA renegotiation. She couldn't say how the resolution would come about, and if some kind of cap on Canadian exports of those metals would be part of it.

International Trade Today is providing readers with some of the top stories for Nov. 5-9 in case they were missed.

While the next chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee is clear -- Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass. -- the leadership of the Senate Finance Committee and the Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee is up in the air. Neal, who represents a slice of Western Massachusetts that has suffered from deindustrialization, voted against NAFTA, but for giving China permanent most favored nation status. He also voted no on the most recent fast-track renewal in 2015.

The de minimis footnote within the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is cause for "serious concerns" for the Customs Matters and Trade Facilitation Industry Trade Advisory Committee (ITAC 12), the committee said in an addendum to its report on the trade deal. The addendum, which is dated Oct. 24 but was released by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative this week, is among multiple reports updated after Canada agreed to join the deal between the U.S. and Mexico. While the main advisory committee offered some light criticism in its support of the deal (see 1811060023), individual ITACs included some more pointed concerns.

Fourteen trade groups wrote to the U.S. trade representative asking him to strip language in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that suggests the de minimis level could be lowered to be closer to the NAFTA region trading partners' levels. The letter, sent Nov. 6, was initiated by the National Foreign Trade Council, and notes that Congress unilaterally raised the de minimis level in 2016 because "reduced logistics costs improve the bottom line of American small businesses across industries who import low value components for assembly and value-added manufacturing operations." It helps firms that import samples, the letter said, and benefits "importers and logistics firms by reducing the time and cost to process millions of shipments and shaving a half-a-day or more from clearing each shipment."

The aluminum producers of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. have written their leaders -- as well as Mexico's president-elect -- asking that tariffs on aluminum be lifted, without quotas, before Nov. 30. "The USMCA cannot work for the aluminum industry or our many downstream customers without exempting Canada and Mexico from the [Section] 232 tariffs or quotas," the three trade groups wrote in a Nov. 5 letter. They suggested that unnaturally cheap Chinese aluminum cannot come into the U.S. through a free-trade backdoor. "Canada recently moved to align its country of origin marking regime for steel and aluminum products to prevent transshipment and diversion of aluminum and steel. Mexico has initiated an anti-dumping case on aluminum foil imports from China," the letter said, so the tariffs in the region are no longer needed. The U.S. aluminum trade group never supported aluminum tariffs on allies.