CBO: No de Minimis Would Mean $5.2 B in Revenue First Full Year
If de minimis ends for all imports in July 2027, as proposed in the tax bill currently being considered in the House of Representatives, the U.S. Treasury would collect an additional $5.2 billion in the first full fiscal year after the change, mostly in tariffs, but including $231 million in customs user fees.
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From fiscal year 2027 through fiscal year 2034, the end of the budget window for the bill, there would be more than $38 billion in additional tariffs collected, according to the estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.
An earlier model for the increased revenue just from ending de minimis for Chinese goods subject to Section 301 duties estimated an annual increase in tariff revenues of $5.9 billion in the first year, assuming that consumer demand would fall for direct imports because of the higher prices. If purchasing patterns didn't change, there would be a $7.8 billion increase in tariff revenue, CBP projected.
That was based on an assumption that 77% of de minimis imports would owe duties if Section 301 goods were excluded, and that the average tariff would be 21.2%. Currently, tariffs on Chinese goods, which no longer qualify for de minimis, are much higher; Temu stopped shipping directly from China to consumers, but Shein still does, adding the tariff cost to orders.