Republican Senators Not Turning Yet, but Cracks Appearing in Party

Cruz, who spoke about the tariffs at length on his regular podcast, said April 4, "I want this to succeed, but my definition of 'succeed' may be different from the White House's."

He said if, within 30, 60 or 90 days, foreign countries slash their tariffs on American goods, and Trump slashes U.S. tariffs to match the lower rates, "I will celebrate."

"There's another way this could play out," he warned. "Other countries get pissed off, and they jack up tariffs, and they impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods -- and Trump tariffs stay in place."

If that's the case in 60 days, Cruz predicted, inflation will rise, profits will fall, jobs will be cut -- and the country could fall into a recession.

"It's terrible for Texas, and it's terrible for America," he said. "And there is a very real risk of that."

Cruz said that the average voter thinks that GM, Ford and Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge will be the beneficiaries of the 25% auto tariffs Trump imposed before he hiked tariffs on most all other imports. But, he said, the auto manufacturers think it will hurt them more than it helps them.

"I was talking with one of the major U.S. car manufacturers yesterday," Cruz said, and the company representative told him that the average price on all their cars, even those assembled in the U.S., will increase by $4,500, probably in June.

"I think the business community was shocked by the magnitude of these tariffs," he added. He said that group "has systematically underestimated how much President Trump ... views tariffs as an ongoing permanent feature of our economic policy." Cruz said he talks to the president often, and every time they talk, Trump asks Cruz if he knows how many hundreds of billions of dollars the tariffs are raising. He said that in the first term, Republican senators and some in the White House convinced Trump to dial back his tariff ambitions. (The 25% tariff on autos and auto parts was something Trump pursued in 2019, but didn't go forward on at that time).

"I think in the second term, Trump feels unchained," Cruz said. "He feels screw it, let's go."

Conservative host Ben Ferguson asked Cruz to say, on a scale from 1 to 10, how concerned Republicans are about the tariff actions this week. Cruz deadpanned, "42."

Cruz said it's a "bizarre dynamic" in Washington, as Democrats say: "this is a catastrophe... it's the worst thing that ever happened." And Republicans say: "this is great, this is fantastic, this is a day of liberation."

He said Democrats were always the protectionists, and until a few years ago, "Republicans were the party of free trade."

Cruz said "if these tariffs result in massively higher prices," and the hit to importers and exporters causes a recession, something he called "a very possible outcome," then the 2026 mid-term elections in Congress "would be a bloodbath" for Republicans.

There has been a little Republican public pushback, with four Republicans voting to rescind tariffs on Canada a few days ago, and Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, joining with long-time free-trade advocate Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., to introduce a bill to prevent future tariffs of this kind without approval from Congress. Tariffs would automatically expire after 60 days if that bill became law.

When asked by International Trade Today if he would be open to supporting Grassley's bill, Sen. John Barasso, R-Wyo., showed a printout with a "Grassley bill" headline. "I have an article right here -- I'm going to read about it," he said.

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., avoided answering a question on Grassley's bill. "I'm actively engaged with both Vietnam and China and trying to keep the conversation going," he replied. He said that he visited Vietnam and Beijing a few weeks ago, ahead of the tariff announcement, and talked about trade and tariffs. Daines referred to Trump's social media posting about his phone call with Vietnam's leader, which said that Vietnam is interested in eliminating its tariffs on U.S. exports.

"I find that to be very positive," Daines said, if countries facing reciprocal tariffs "remove and significantly reduce the barriers, both tariff and non-tariff barriers, for getting better access into these markets. Vietnam is ready to buy airplanes, American LNG, American beef, wheat, barley and so forth. I think it's a step in the right direction."

While Cruz is right that more Democrats have traditionally been for protecting domestic manufacturers than opening markets, even some longtime free-trade skeptics are speaking out against this policy. House Ways and Means Committee member Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, tweeted, "As markets crash (biggest single drop since March 2020 from COVID), as grocery prices rise, as trillions of dollars are knocked off the value of the companies with fears of a recession, all you hear from Republicans is silence. If only a few Republicans worked with Dems, we could end this madness."

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., who got a few Republicans on his bill, said in a speech on the Senate floor that he's working with the House to see if they can find a way to get a vote to overturn the tariffs on Canada. (Trump could veto a bill on either side if it only had a bare majority, however.)

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., said in a hallway interview at the Capitol that the global tariffs, like the Smoot-Hawley tariffs passed in Congress in 1930, "will hurt a lot of people. And Trump has already said he doesn't care."

On the Grassley-Cantwell bill, Peters said, "Clearly, we need a check, because the power that Trump is exercising right now is hurting millions of people, and Congress needs to step up and say no."

When asked if Republicans would do so, Peters replied, "I would hope [Republicans] would not want to see this kind of pain inflicted on their people by a policy that is clearly flawed."

When asked if announcements of new auto jobs in Indiana are an argument for the efficacy of the Section 232 auto tariffs, Peters responded, "If you look at the [stock] market these past two days -- [we lost] probably five trillion dollars, if he thinks that is equal to it, he is crazy."