US Imports Likely to Be Sluggish for Remainder of 2025, Freight Market Observers Say
U.S. imports are likely to continue to fall in the remaining months of 2025 as waning consumer confidence is putting pressure on import demand, according to multiple sources.
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If the freight market is anticipating a rebound or surge for trans-Pacific volumes, "we're not seeing that very significantly at all. It's probably mostly because of front-loading that had already taken place somewhat since the November election," said Judah Levine, Freightos head of research, during a Sept. 11 webinar on the freight market.
Importers also could be "very cautious about inventory levels because there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of the economic impacts on consumers, in terms of the effects of the tariffs that [have been] already introduced," Levine continued.
Levine added that overall volumes for loaded containers, meanwhile, have increased for regions beyond the U.S. While China-U.S. bookings were down 15% year-over-year in July, global loaded containers increased 5% in that same month.
"There is strong demand overall. It's possibly fueled somewhat by shifts away from North America and toward other markets for exporters like China and others in the Far East. And this is interesting in terms of the overall freight demand, but also in terms of rate behavior," Levine said.
The National Retail Federation also indicated this week that U.S. import likely will fall for the remainder of the year, citing the tariffs.
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a Sept. 9 release. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”
NRF's monthly Global Port Tracker report, which it produces with Hackett Associates, estimates that import volumes at major U.S. ports were about 2.28 million twenty-foot equivalent units, down 1.7% year-over-year. September's forecast is 2.12 million TEU, 6.8% lower year-over-year, and October's forecast is 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%. November is projected to total around 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%. December's forecast is 1.7 million TEU, a 20.1% drop year-over-year, according to NRF. If the forecast proves correct, December would be the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
The U.S. is continuing trade negotiations with China, and the extension of current tariff rates goes through Nov. 10 (see 2508110016). This could result in some freight market volatility, particularly as China wraps up Golden Week, a national holiday, according to Flexport's Konstantina Georgaki, senior director for air freight.
"A positive outcome, meaning tariffs stay where they are, or they get lower ... will be a good environment for rate stability. But if the outcome is that the tariffs will increase, then we should expect a quick de-escalation of [freight] prices. So lots to watch out for," Georgaki said during Flexport's Sept. 11 webinar on the freight market.