Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Would Significantly Affect Asian Trade, Researcher Says
A potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan could significantly affect trade routes to and from Asia, along with broader supply chains that depend on the region, said Eric Heginbotham, an international studies research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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During an event last week hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Heginbotham and other panelists war-gamed a possible Chinese military blockade of Taiwan in the coming years. Heginbotham said the blockade would cut Taiwan off from the international economic system, leading to severe shipping disruptions.
"There would be no normal here, right? There's no normal shipping at this point," he said. "All shipping, all trade would really be heavily affected, starting with supply chains."
The blockade likely would affect all "normal" shipping -- shipping that's insured through "commercial means" -- at all Chinese ports, with spillover effects to Japanese and South Korean ports, he said. There would be "profound effects on all shipping coming in and out of Northeast Asia."
U.S. lawmakers for years have been concerned about a possible Chinese invasion and blockade of Taiwan and have introduced legislation to impose sanctions against Beijing in such a scenario (see 2407190039 and 2409090062).