Fireworks Possible at G7, Experts Say

Center for Strategic and International Studies program directors, speaking on a press call June 10, five days ahead of the summit, drew a direct line from 2018 to today. This summit, too, will be hosted in Canada.

Victor Cha is president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and former National Security Council official who covered Japan. Cha said the subtext of this meeting will be the tariffs Trump has levied on all the G7 countries -- and Mexico, whose president has been invited as an observer. He said he expects the leaders will talk a lot about tariffs, even if the readouts don't say so.

"I certainly expect that there’ll be ... some fireworks of some sort," he said, similar to in 2018, when he said Trump "blew up" the summit.

The announced priority issues are strengthening allies' critical minerals supply chains, ensuring leadership in AI and quantum computing, countering foreign interference, and opening markets and mobilizing private investment for developing world infrastructure.

Navin Girishankar, president of CSIS' Economic Security and Technology Department, said that even if China says it's ending restrictions on rare earth magnet exports, "the long-term interest of G7 partners is to do more to identify, extract, and process rocks in the ground." He said the Ukraine critical minerals deal, which outlines investment parameters, could be a precedent, but he said a pooled investment fund among G7 members is unlikely. He said there might be a supply chain statement addressing "other potential choke points like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals."

Girishankar said he thinks the fate of the London talks between China and the U.S. on the two countries' export control escalation will influence how the weekend leaders' meeting unfolds.

"I think that if a floor is established around export controls in a way that the Trump administration can describe that as a victory, which undoubtedly they will try to do, they may come more emboldened, and so you can price in an even more volatile potential situation," he said.

"However, if it doesn’t pan out then there may be some tempering of the approach with the Europeans and with the Japanese, I think."

There has been reporting in the Canadian press that new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been talking with Trump on the phone in the evenings, hoping to arrive at a trade deal ahead of the summit.

Girishankar said he thinks that is unlikely, given the fact that the Court of International Trade ruled that the authorities Trump used for both the fentanyl tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs were outside the bounds of the law he invoked. The administration appealed the ruling.

In response to a question from International Trade Today, he said, "I don’t see the Trump administration announcing a detente. They want to see how that plays out."

Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, said the EU has "delicate internal politics" that will prevent confrontation over trade at the summit.

"While French President Emmanuel Macron may be the one most ready to throw a punch at Donald Trump, on the other hand, for him internally inside of Europe, if he’s seen as sort of lighting fire to the transatlantic alliance, that’s not really good for the French position," Bergmann said.

He said European leaders are hoping to make some progress on tariffs when they see Trump this weekend. Bergmann noted that, while Europe is hoping to avoid confrontation, there is criticism in Europe on whether that has been the right approach, with "some saying look at how China has responded much more forcefully and aggressively, and that’s the way you get the United States to climb down."

"The previous G7 summits, as well as NATO summits, were sort of awkward family gatherings. Europeans tried to minimize how much was discussed, to sort of get in, get out, and hopefully there’s no blow-up. And the question now, I think, is not so much is this an awkward family gathering. I think that’s almost a given," he added. "I think the question is, is this still a family?"

CSIS's Caitlin Walsh, who was part of the G7 sherpa team during the first Trump administration, agreed that the 2018 blow-up casts a long shadow over this year's summit, and that trade tensions persist.

She said Trump showed then "that the administration was serious when it said that no deal is better than a bad deal," and that's still true.

She said her best projection of what will happen this weekend is "I expect to be surprised."