Ag Industry Representatives Concerned About Tariffs, Uncertainty
Agriculture representatives from across the industry expressed nervousness at the Trump administration's current trade policy, saying that the potential for a trade war from reciprocal tariffs would devastate American farmers.
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"I think there's a lot of uncertainty, and agriculture doesn't love uncertainty," said Jordan Dux, a senior director at the Nebraska Farm Bureau. "Farmers and ranchers don't love uncertainty. And so whether you're talking about basic economics, whether you're talking about trade, I think farmers are a little nervous." Dux, who previously worked on agriculture issues for Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb., was speaking at a March 19 event hosted by the Washington International Trade Association.
Darci Vetter, previously chief agricultural negotiator and deputy undersecretary of agriculture under President Barack Obama, said the agriculture sector is losing trust in the Trump administration. "I think the on-again, off-again nature of some of these tariffs, the introducing tariffs as a tool for use in non-trade-related negotiations, I think those do have kind of an impact on overall trust."
Virginia Houston, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, spoke of the pain that soybean growers felt during the first Trump administration. "U.S. soy is the poster child for retaliation and a trade war, which I don't recommend for anyone." She said the retaliatory tariffs that China imposed during the trade war cost the U.S. market access, which allowed foreign competitors, such as Brazil, to outcompete U.S. growers.
Joseph Glauber, a research fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute and a former chief economist at USDA, said that "to talk about a multiple-front trade war is, frankly, quite disturbing for agriculture."
It's the uncertainty of current trade policy that is most worrying for the industry, the speakers said. They welcomed many of Trump's America-first policies but have "consistently asked for ... a better understanding" from the administration as to "what really helps U.S. agriculture and how to advance those interests," said Tom Madrecki, vice president of supply chain resiliency at the Consumer Brands Association. "Because again, we're here for America first."
Dux also advocated for President Donald Trump's policies for agriculture but said he worries about the effect that uncertainty will have on an unflexible business like agriculture: "There's a lot of uncertainty. There's a lot, whether it be the trade side of things or just general economics of where things are at, input prices, all those things, [and] farmers are putting crops in the ground here pretty soon at a loss."
"Ultimately," Houston said, "all roads lead to trade for us," despite what Trump tweeted about "preparing to sell more domestically," because the soybean farmers produce more than they can sell domestically.
Vetter agreed that domestic production isn't a viable strategy for agriculture. "Someone asked me what I thought about that tweet about, get ready to sell our products domestically. And my response was: 'I hope you're hungry.'"