NRF Sees Higher Import Volumes in Spring but Lower Import Volumes in Summer
Elevated import volumes at major U.S. ports could persist through this spring "amid continuing tariff turmoil" before volumes face potential year-over-year drops over the summer, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
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“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a March 10 release for the monthly Global Port Tracker report, which monitors import volumes at major U.S. ports. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April."
Gold continued: "Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”
NRF and Hackett Associates calculated that U.S. ports handled 2.22 million twenty-foot equivalent units in January, which is 4.4% higher than December and 13.4% higher than January 2024.
February volumes have yet to be reported by the ports, but the report projects that volumes could total around 2.07 million TEUs, which would be up 6.1% year-over-year. "That would be the busiest February -- traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China -- in three years," NRF and Hackett Associates said.
Other volume projections included a 10.8% increase in March to 2.14 million TEUs; 5.7% increase in April to 2.13 million TEUs; a 2.8% increase in May to 2.14 million TEUs; a 3.2% decline in June to 2.07 million TEUs and a 13.9% decline in July to 1.99 million TEUs.
"June and July’s year-over-year declines would be the first since September 2023, and July’s volume would be lowest since 1.93 million in March 2024," NRF and Hackett Associates said. "While tariffs might be a factor in the year-over-year decline, imports were elevated last summer as retailers brought in cargo ahead of what turned out to be a short strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in October."
The projected port volumes come as NRF also said on March 10 that it saw retail spending fall on a monthly basis in February amid concerns over tariffs, although retail spending still grew year-over-year.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February, NRF said in its monthly Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January, NRF said.