NRF: US Import Volumes Elevated in December
U.S. imports got a boost in December and are likely to be elevated in January compared with year-ago levels, according to the National Retail Federation, as retailers brought in spring merchandise early to hedge against the potential of a labor strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast terminals -- a strike threat that was averted this week (see 2501090003).
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Retailers also were likely responding to the possibility that President-elect Donald Trump could enact additional tariffs once he assumes office. Trump has floated the idea of levying a 25% tariff against goods from Mexico and Canada (see 2411260012), a 100% tariff on BRICS countries (see 2412020003), up to 60% in new tariffs on goods from China and a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports (see 2412120058), although it's still uncertain what tariffs will actually be enacted.
“The new [six-year labor] contract brings certainty and avoids disruptions, and we hope to see it ratified as soon as possible,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a Jan. 10 release on the monthly import volumes report produced by NRF and partner Hackett Associates. “But the agreement came at the last minute, and retailers were already bringing in spring merchandise early to ensure that they would be well-stocked to serve their customers in case of another disruption, resulting in higher imports. The surge in imports has also been driven by President-elect Trump’s plan to increase tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher costs that will eventually be paid by consumers. The long-term impact on imports remains to be seen.”
NRF and Hackett Associates determined in their monthly Global Port Tracker that the major U.S. ports handled 2.17 million twenty-foot equivalent units in November, which is down 3.2% from October but up 14.7% year-over-year. The ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data for November, NRF said.
They also estimate that December volumes could total 2.24 million TEUs, although the ports have not yet reported their totals, they said. December's estimated figure is up 19.2% year-over-year.
January's volumes could be 2.16 million TEUs, which is 10% higher year-over-year, while February's volumes could fall 4.5% year-over-year to 1.87 million TEUs amid the Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
“Just a few days ago, the clock was ticking down toward a possible strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, and an agreement that would avoid a shutdown appeared to be some way off,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We have narrowly averted a strike, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been an impact. Importers had already front-loaded cargo in anticipation of delays, giving a boost to imports in December and early January.”