House GOP Moves on Trade, Votes Expected in Coming Days
Trade legislation may hit the House floor for votes in the final days of this week, House Republican leadership indicated early on June 10. Several trade lobbyists said lawmakers could pass the four trade bills by June 12. The House Rules Committee scheduled a June 10 vote on the rules for all four bills, a necessary precursor to floor time (here). That outcome will likely dictate the path forward on trade, said observers.
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The House is still wading through procedural hurdles, and the Rules Committee is moving forward with the Senate-approved Trade Promotion Authority and Trade Adjustment Assistance legislation. But the committee is amending the Senate-produced preferences package and Customs Reauthorization with legislation produced by the House Ways and Means Committee.
Despite the moving parts, the plan to vote on trade in the coming days indicates Republican leadership has shored up close to enough, at minimum, votes to pass all the bills, said the lobbyists and other experts. “I’m not entirely sure they’re at 218 yet,” said one industry executive. “They may be moving forward without an ironclad commitment that they have 218 votes, and they are looking to round up the final votes if necessary on the House floor. It’s only Wednesday morning and they have until Friday to lock down the votes. The actual vote will force those fence-sitters in the House to make a “yes” or “no” decision.”
The Senate passed its four trade bills in late May (see 1505260014). Ways and Means approved its bills the month before (see 1504240021). Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., recently said both the preferences packages and the customs bills are headed for conference (see 1506040066). The preferences packages produced in both chambers include renewals for the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the Generalized System of Preferences and two Haiti tariff preference level programs.
The last time the House voted on TPA in 2002 it passed with a slim 215-212 margin, and many experts expect the time around to be similarly tight. “It’s going to be a close vote obviously; they’ve whipped this bill as hard as they’ve whipped any bill,” said one trade lobbyist. “I think TPA and TAA will make it into law by the end of the month.” The procedural gymnastics are designed to allow House lawmakers to endorse the Senate-passed TPA and TAA bills in order to send the legislation directly to President Barack Obama, said Mayer Brown senior trade advisor Warren Payne. The approach also may allow lawmakers to address a funding offset disagreement in TAA through the preference package, he said.
Lawmakers are also angling to address TPA human trafficking language through Customs Reauthorization conference (see 1505260037). That tactic ups the focus on that legislation, said Payne and trade lobbyist Ron Sorini. “There is an urgency. The conference will be quick, and I think they’ll make the fixes and give the president a bill within two weeks,” said Sorini. “This is not a bill they can afford to let languish, and there’s a tremendous amount of pressure on them to act.”
An aide for House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said early on June 10 in a message to reporters “the House has the flexibility to move on [TPA] as early as this week.” His office didn’t respond for further comment. The Rules Committee will determine on June 10 the guidelines for debate by coining a “rule” for each bill. “The rule will dictate the terms of debate,” said Scott Miller, trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It will be the first real look at time allocated for debate on each section of the bills.” Miller said he expects the House to finish off trade before lawmakers depart on June 12.