Lawmakers Poised to Float Strongly-Supported TPA Bill, Say Observers

Staffers for Finance Committee Chairman in the 114th Congress, Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, are reaching out to ranking member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., to incorporate some of his ideas, said an industry lawyer. House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., may also want to put his stamp on the bill. But trade supporters on Capitol Hill are pushing to introduce a new bill by the beginning of March, said the lawyer.

President Barack Obama has to propose a budget for the 2016 fiscal year by February and budget leaders on Capitol Hill often propose bills the following month. So lawmakers want to introduce a TPA bill before launching into the appropriations process, which follows the budget proposals, said several of those interviewed. The 114th Congress officially convenes on Jan. 6.

Senate Republicans will have to attract a half dozen Democrats, in a best case scenario where all Senate Republicans vote in favor of TPA, in order to hit the filibuster-proof 60 votes mark. An agreement between Hatch and Wyden will be crucial to meet that goal, said National Foreign Trade Council President Bill Reinsch in an interview. “If you look at Hatch and Wyden over the years, they’re both capable and willing to work across party lines to achieve a result,” Reinsch said. “If there’s a delay, it’s because they can’t reach a deal. The best way to deal with this always is to reach a bipartisan compromise as early in the process as you can and just take it from there.”

Wyden outlined some of his preferences for a revised TPA bill in the days before the midterm elections, according to some observers (see 1411120045). He has yet to go public with those preferences though.

With Ryan keeping Angela Ellard on as Ways and Means chief trade counsel (see 1412160001), the committee's trade policy is likely to stay on a similar course, said Barnes & Thornburg lawyer David Spooner. Ellard “is an old hand and top notch,” said Spooner, who represents the U.S. Fashion Industry Association. “I don’t think there’s any apprehension that Ways and Means Republicans will shift at all on trade. Angela will be a steady hand. I’m less sure whether it will be first order of business.”

Although Ryan is often viewed as more tax than trade focused, he has experience with trade. Ryan was the GOP point person for the U.S.-Bahrain free trade agreement, signed in 2004. Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Pat Tiberi, R-Ohio, also recently pledged his support for TPA and the broad trade agenda in an interview (see 1412120012). GOP members on the Ways and Means Committee routinely pushed for action on trade in the previous Congress, but former chairman Dave Camp didn’t hold a trade vote for at least the last year of that Congress.

Despite the moving parts in the transition to the 114th Congress, Republicans will largely support TPA if a vote is held, said many of those interviewed. Republican leaders and President Barack Obama have recently said TPA should pass (see 1412120003), in a show of increased commitment for the bill, those interviewed said. Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have both called for TPA passage in past weeks and trade supporters criticized former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., for threatening to obstruct a vote on the bill (see 14020401).

In the past, when the far-right Republican caucuses had less sway, there would be no question over whether the bill would pass, said another Washington trade lawyer. “But this is not a normal period; it’s subject to weirdness. Who would have thought [the Export-Import Bank] would be such a lightning rod?” said the lawyer, referring to the fight over Ex-Im reauthorization legislation. “The question is does Boehner have a majority of his conference? And the answer is yes.” U.S.-Japanese talks over Trans-Pacific Partnership agricultural market access are almost wrapped up, so lawmakers are ready to vote on a TPA bill that is likely to usher that pact through Congress, said the lawyer.

More formal House rules for the legislative process make that chamber more reliable, despite the uncertainty over far-right positions, said observers. Republicans gained a dozen seats in the midterm elections to top their majority off at 246 members in that chamber. That means in order to get the bill passed Boehner can lose 28 seats in his conference. In 2013, 22 House Republicans vowed to oppose TPA over concerns of executive overreach (see 13111230), but five of those lawmakers will not be in the 114th Congress. Boehner has said, however, Democrats may need to deliver 50 votes for him to move ahead with the legislative process.

If Senate Republicans, primarily Hatch, reach out to Democrats on Finance with strong objections to TPA, such as Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, he may be able to get a few more votes, said Reinsch. But that would require appeasement to the far left on currency, labor, environment and other terms in a revised TPA bill. Sixty senators pressed the administration to crack down on currency manipulation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2013, as did a majority in the House (see 14041808).

Leadership commitments to the measure will encourage committee votes that should easily advance the legislation in both chambers, said others. The new numbers on Finance pave the way for a smooth vote on the committee, said Hatch and Finance member Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., before recess (see 1412170024).

But trade isn’t the rallying cry to political bases like other legislation, such as immigration, so it still may be shelved at the outset of this congressional term, said Simon Lester, trade analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute. Lester also cautioned that TPA is only the framework for overseeing negotiations and passing legislation. “TPA is written broadly and vaguely enough, so there might be fights over small issues, but you’re kind of kicking the can down the road,” said Lester. “TPP will say specific things and they will have to be addressed in the legislation for that deal. So if [lawmakers] really want to get [TPA] done, they can find the right word, and then find the binding legal language in the agreements.”

The trade community continues to rally around TPA because, in part, it’s the only bill that can act as a vehicle and shepherd through the slew of trade laws that have expired, such as the Generalized System of Preferences, the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill and preferences for Nicaragua apparel trade, as well as the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which will expire at the end of September. “Folks in Congress agree that U.S. leadership is at stake,” said Ron Sorini, a trade consultant. “The U.S. is the laggard in the world when it comes to trade. GSP expired and the other countries are introducing new trade measures. We’ve crafted TPP, and if that falls we will lose a lot of respect for U.S. leadership.” AGOA expiration would be an “unimaginable scenario,” said Sorini.