Lame-Duck Trade Hopes Wither as Extenders Bill Moves Forward Alone

Trade supporters have hope the extenders bill would serve as a vehicle to move trade bills, such as the Generalized System of Preferences (see 1411170027). As Trade Promotion Authority continues to languish on Capitol Hill, all hopes for moving trade legislation in the lame-duck session may now be shot, said the observers. “I would be amazed,” said Gary Hufbauer, a senior analyst at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, referring to the prospect of moving extenders with any trade legislation. “I would be truly surprised. It seems to me they’re laboring hard to get a one-year extension on … I think [lawmakers are] so anxious to just go home.” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has threatened to keep the Senate in session through Dec. 19, but many lawmakers are aiming to wrap up the lame-duck by the end of next week.

A trade analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute, Dan Pearson, said tacking bills onto extenders would complicate the process and put the package at risk. Some tax experts echo that insight, saying lawmakers will settle for the one-year extension in the Camp bill. “Lawmakers can’t open the books on this bill, because then it may be one more [amendment] on it and then one more,” said tax specialist at Americans for Tax Reform Ryan Ellis, indicating the process could then unravel. “The leader’s office and House Republicans have said they’re moving on the bill [on Dec. 3]. It sounds like Reid will want to take it up quickly, and then it will be done for the president’s signature.” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest declined to comment on whether President Barack Obama would support or oppose the Camp bill in a Dec. 2 briefing, but said Obama is open to considering the proposal.

Although the Camp bill has mostly been championed as a flat, one-year renewal of the tax breaks passed in the previous extenders bill, Ways and Means ranking member Sandy Levin, D-Mich., criticized the omission of a provision that helps compensate workers who lose jobs to trade. "The Health Coverage Tax Credit for more than a decade has provided vital health insurance assistance for workers laid off through no fault of their own as a result of trade agreements,” said Levin in a Dec. 2 statement (here). “It is critical it – along with the entire Trade Adjustment Assistance – be renewed before the end of this year.” Democratic lawmakers in both chambers have introduced trade adjustment assistance renewal legislation this year, although the program is set to expire on Dec. 31 (here).

The House and Senate will have to pass appropriations legislation by Dec. 11 in order to keep the government running. Ellis indicated government funding bills could provide a vehicle for some trade bills, even GSP renewal. But many business and trade proponents, such as the American Apparel and Footwear Association, are now focused on ensuring appropriations does pass through in the lame-duck, while keeping trade bills on their radar for the outset of the next Congress. “New fights over extending AAFA-supported tax incentives or even funding the government for the rest of the fiscal year have dampened expectations for quick action on AAFA priorities like renewal of the Nicaragua TPL trade program and renewing and expanding GSP trade preferences to include travel goods,” said Nate Herman, AAFA vice president, international trade, in an email. “However, AAFA continues to push for these and other key initiatives in case there is a breakthrough in the current logjam.”