Japanese Domestic Politics Bode Favorably for TPP Concessions, Say Analysts
Japanese domestic resistance to Trans-Pacific Partnership concessions does not create a political threat to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, despite recent speculation to the contrary, and it is unclear why U.S.-Japanese market access negotiations have progressed at such a slow pace, said trade policy analysts at a Sept. 5 U.S.-Japan Research Institute panel. U.S. officials admit that the Japanese agricultural sector’s refusal to allow liberalization poses a challenge for Abe (see 14050804). Following months of failed attempts to broker compromise in TPP agricultural market access, Acting Deputy USTR Wendy Cutler and Chief Agriculture Negotiator Darci Vetter will head to Tokyo from Sept. 9-10 to resume bilateral negotiations (see 14090524).
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The Japanese political environment instead offers a strong opportunity for Abe, the head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to approve concessions and force TPP critics to cope with liberalized markets, said Mireya Solis, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, at the event. “You have a strong prime minister. You have weak opposition parties, many of them in disarray,” said Solis. “You do not have … strong internal challengers within the LDP and therefore the question is: If the conditions are there, why then is it taking Japan so long to reach an understanding and agreement with the United States?”
The absence of Trade Promotion Authority in the U.S. may be preventing Japanese concessions, Solis added. Members of Congress have so far failed to chart a path forward with TPA legislation (see 14081105). The first quarter of 2015 is a likely target for TPA and TPP ratification, said Matthew Goodman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All the panelists stressed that further intransigence in U.S.-Japan bilateral negotiations threatens to derail ratification of the pact. If consensus is reached, TPP negotiations as a whole could wrap up by November, said Goodman. President Barack Obama recently mentioned November as target for the conclusion of talks (see 14062318). He is scheduled to take a diplomatic tour of Asia that month. Solis also in a recent research paper urged TPP parties, namely the U.S. and Japan, to "substantially complete" negotiations by the date of Obama's tour (here).
The U.S.-Japan impasse is largely based on Japanese rice, beef and pork, wheat, dairy and sugar market access, according public comments over recent months. The most recent public information suggests Japan insists on a liberalization exemption for more than 500 tariff lines (see 14071709). Abe may be unwilling to liberalize the Japanese economy because his LDP party has historically championed protectionist policies for those markets, said Takashi Terada, a professor at Doshisha University in Japan. Terada said Japan is, however, indicating it will concede more liberalization, particularly with pork and beef, in the near future, but may also insist on import safeguards in the agreement. “If a sudden increase in imports is observed as dangerous for some industries, a nation, like Japan for example, could increase the tariff ratio to stop the imports,” said Terada in describing a possible safeguard proposal. -- Brian Dabbs