<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">There remains no guarantee of safety for ships, crew and cargo passing through the waterway, which means it would likely be out of bounds for the rest of the year, says CEO Vincent Clerc.</div>

There remains no guarantee of safety for ships, crew and cargo passing through the waterway, which means it would likely be out of bounds for the rest of the year, says CEO Vincent Clerc.

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<div class="phx-topic">Maersk has ruled out a return to Red Sea transits this year despite an assertion from US President Donald Trump this week that Houthi militants in Yemen “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts on a first-quarter earnings call Thursday that it would not be responsible to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal when there were no guarantees over the safety of crew, ships and cargo. That means Maersk vessels will continue to divert around southern Africa. “If the US will stop bombing (the Houthi), that's good,” Clerc said. “Whether this means there is not only safety today, but safety for the foreseeable future for us sending our colleagues, our assets and our customers’ cargo through the Red Sea again, we're pretty far from that threshold.” Trump on Tuesday said <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apparent-houthi-ceasefire-raises-container-shipping-overcapacity-risk-5999930">the Houthi had “capitulated”</a> and that the US would suspend its aerial strikes on militant positions in Yemen. "They just don't want to fight,” Trump told reporters. “We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings. But, more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore and that's what the purpose of what we were doing." Ocean carriers have been forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope for the past 18 months to avoid missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthi from southern Yemen. The militants have said the attacks were a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. A Houthi official told Reuters the US and Houthis had agreed to "no longer target each other," but that attacks on Israel would continue. However, a Houthi media statement issued late Wednesday, just a day after the Trump ceasefire announcement, claimed the militants had conducted an attack against the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its support vessels. <h3>Red Sea return ‘not responsible’ </h3>Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said the US-Houthi ceasefire announcement represented “a pragmatic, limited de-escalation rather than a pathway toward comprehensive peace.” ”The Houthis are likely to use any relative pause in US bombing to rearm and rebuild infrastructure that has been targeted over the course of the existing campaign that began on March 15,” Kennedy said in a customer brief this week. “Houthi targeting and identification of vessels it accuses of supporting Israel has previously, in our view, been inconsistent and based on incomplete information, maintaining severe risks for shipping in transit due to misidentification,” he added. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January, but did not provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Clerc said the strong link between Houthi attacks and the Gaza war, which he said was worsening, and the lack of any formal structure to this week’s US-Houthi ceasefire claim by the White House, rendered the chances of a return of shipping to the Red Sea this year "very, very low.” “Going through something as complex, costly and hard to reverse as a complete redeployment of our shipping networks back through the Red Sea based on news of a deal whose contour we don't understand, whose terms we don't understand, and which has been breached already, I think is really not responsible,” he said. The carrier’s Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd said its position on sailing through the Red Sea also remained unchanged following the comments by Trump. “There is not much we can say at this point other than that we will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson Tim Seifert told the Journal of Commerce. “Otherwise, the following applies unchanged: We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk has ruled out a return to Red Sea transits this year despite an assertion from US President Donald Trump this week that Houthi militants in Yemen “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts on a first-quarter earnings call Thursday that it would not be responsible to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal when there were no guarantees over the safety of crew, ships and cargo. That means Maersk vessels will continue to divert around southern Africa. “If the US will stop bombing (the Houthi), that's good,” Clerc said. “Whether this means there is not only safety today, but safety for the foreseeable future for us sending our colleagues, our assets and our customers’ cargo through the Red Sea again, we're pretty far from that threshold.” Trump on Tuesday said the Houthi had “capitulated” and that the US would suspend its aerial strikes on militant positions in Yemen. "They just don't want to fight,” Trump told reporters. “We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings. But, more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore and that's what the purpose of what we were doing." Ocean carriers have been forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope for the past 18 months to avoid missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthi from southern Yemen. The militants have said the attacks were a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. A Houthi official told Reuters the US and Houthis had agreed to "no longer target each other," but that attacks on Israel would continue. However, a Houthi media statement issued late Wednesday, just a day after the Trump ceasefire announcement, claimed the militants had conducted an attack against the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its support vessels. Red Sea return ‘not responsible’ Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the US-Houthi ceasefire announcement represented “a pragmatic, limited de-escalation rather than a pathway toward comprehensive peace.” ”The Houthis are likely to use any relative pause in US bombing to rearm and rebuild infrastructure that has been targeted over the course of the existing campaign that began on March 15,” Kennedy said in a customer brief this week. “Houthi targeting and identification of vessels it accuses of supporting Israel has previously, in our view, been inconsistent and based on incomplete information, maintaining severe risks for shipping in transit due to misidentification,” he added. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January, but did not provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Clerc said the strong link between Houthi attacks and the Gaza war, which he said was worsening, and the lack of any formal structure to this week’s US-Houthi ceasefire claim by the White House, rendered the chances of a return of shipping to the Red Sea this year "very, very low.” “Going through something as complex, costly and hard to reverse as a complete redeployment of our shipping networks back through the Red Sea based on news of a deal whose contour we don't understand, whose terms we don't understand, and which has been breached already, I think is really not responsible,” he said. The carrier’s Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd said its position on sailing through the Red Sea also remained unchanged following the comments by Trump. “There is not much we can say at this point other than that we will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson Tim Seifert told the Journal of Commerce. “Otherwise, the following applies unchanged: We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Container Shipping News

Container lines

Asia-Europe

US-Houthi ceasefire claim not sufficient for carrier return to Red Sea: Maersk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The tight supply of warehousing for frontloaded freight is diverting truck shipments as shippers reposition inventory.</div>

The tight supply of warehousing for frontloaded freight is diverting truck shipments as shippers reposition inventory.

<div class="phx-topic">Rising demand for bonded warehousing amid <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tariff-related-disruption-spreading-as-us-shippers-pause-plans-5989017">high US tariffs</a> is disrupting the flow of freight by truck to inland US markets, drayage providers say. That and high volumes of freight frontloaded to avoid paying those tariffs are throwing some supply chains and inland distribution networks off-kilter as uncertainty deepens around US trade disputes and the potential for trade deals to lower tariffs. Frontloaded freight, first <a href="http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/p/?LinkId=255141">from China</a> and now from other US trading partners facing reciprocal tariffs by July, is forcing US shippers to find new storage space for goods, whether bonded facilities, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-importers-turning-to-foreign-trade-zones-amid-tariff-hikes-5999587">free trade zones</a> (FTZs) or any available warehouse. They’re looking for overflow space and a tariff-safe haven for their goods, and that is shifting shipments and inventory across the country, said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based drayage and logistics provider. “Bonded storage, especially for Chinese goods, is something we’re seeing tons of demand for right now,” Brashier told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Demand is high for bonded trucking as well, in which a carrier moves goods in bond from a port. But bonded warehouses <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-importers-turn-to-canadian-bonded-storage-to-delay-payment-of-tariffs-5990113">are hard to find</a>. Shippers that can’t find bonded storage in the US are looking as far away as Canada. That means freight is shifting to new lanes and perhaps new trucking companies. “Let’s say you frontloaded a ton of goods and you get them into the best port you can as quickly as possible,” he said. “They’re not destined for their normal supply chain.” The situation underscores the need for what industrial real-estate developer Prologis calls “flexible inventory positioning in the evolving landscape.” “A disconnected world will require more warehouse space, not less,” Prologis CFO Timothy D. Arndt said during a first-quarter earnings call last month. Discussions between Prologis and more than 300 customers in April found many companies accelerating shipments, Arndt said, adding: “They’re also rerouting volumes and have urgent demand for overflow space.” What those shippers need is short-term flexibility, and they’re turning to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to find it, he said. “3PLs’ space is getting more utilized, with one prominent name describing that they’ve increased their utilization from 83% to over 90%,” Arndt said. 3PLs are looking for more space for importers, including space at ITS Logistics, which has about 5 million square feet of warehousing at three campuses, Brashier said. “I was approached recently by a 3PL looking to onboard us for additional space,” he said. “Those conversations weren’t happening six months ago, and they are now.” ITS Logistics is also seeing more demand for cross-dock services and direct long-distance trucking or drayage to customers further in the US, skipping intermediate distribution centers. “There’s a lot of stuff moving between distribution centers,” Brashier said, a sign that inventory is being repositioned. Such deviation from “normal” supply chains — especially if it proves long lasting — leads to higher costs for shippers as goods they import move to markets farther from ports. Disruption likely will decline as tariffs take effect and shipments drop. “We’ve got to let everything from the China cut-off process through the system,” Brashier said. <h3>Going with the ‘overflow’ </h3>A Prologis study released this month found that 75% of US real estate demand is tied to regional distribution and local consumer consumption, not global trade. That, in turn, could mean less space available for the overflow of international goods. “Many of our customers source domestically and are relatively unaffected, while others have the capability to adapt or even stand to benefit,” Arndt said. Some Prologis customers are already making decisions, despite uncertainty over US trade policy. “Even in the last two weeks, we signed a lot of leases, and we’ve signed build-to-suits,” Hamid R. Moghadam, Prologis’ chairman and CEO, said during the company’s call. “These customers could have just said, ‘okay, let’s punt on those until we have clarity,’” he said. <h3>Spot market volumes soar </h3>The disruption caused by the diversion of freight is igniting the truckload spot market in terms of volumes. “We’re seeing record numbers of loads moved nationally, surpassing the highest numbers we saw during the pandemic,” Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. Spot loads moved out of Los Angeles are up 17% from February through May; in the previous two years, the number of loads went down in the same period. Spot loads moved from Los Angeles to Phoenix are up 52% in the February–May period, Croke said. Last week was the busiest week ever for DAT’s spot market load boards, with volumes 6% higher than the week ending Nov. 12, 2021 — the height of the COVID-19 pandemic retail freight surge, he said. In addition, “we’re seeing new lanes pop up because shippers are finding new suppliers,” Croke said. However, even with freight diversions and inventory repositioning, there’s little sign that excess truck capacity is being absorbed by the disruption. “This hasn’t affected spot market rates, which shows there’s enough capacity in the contract and spot markets,” Croke said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Rising demand for bonded warehousing amid high US tariffs is disrupting the flow of freight by truck to inland US markets, drayage providers say. That and high volumes of freight frontloaded to avoid paying those tariffs are throwing some supply chains and inland distribution networks off-kilter as uncertainty deepens around US trade disputes and the potential for trade deals to lower tariffs. Frontloaded freight, first from China and now from other US trading partners facing reciprocal tariffs by July, is forcing US shippers to find new storage space for goods, whether bonded facilities, free trade zones (FTZs) or any available warehouse. They’re looking for overflow space and a tariff-safe haven for their goods, and that is shifting shipments and inventory across the country, said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based drayage and logistics provider. “Bonded storage, especially for Chinese goods, is something we’re seeing tons of demand for right now,” Brashier told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Demand is high for bonded trucking as well, in which a carrier moves goods in bond from a port. But bonded warehouses are hard to find . Shippers that can’t find bonded storage in the US are looking as far away as Canada. That means freight is shifting to new lanes and perhaps new trucking companies. “Let’s say you frontloaded a ton of goods and you get them into the best port you can as quickly as possible,” he said. “They’re not destined for their normal supply chain.” The situation underscores the need for what industrial real-estate developer Prologis calls “flexible inventory positioning in the evolving landscape.” “A disconnected world will require more warehouse space, not less,” Prologis CFO Timothy D. Arndt said during a first-quarter earnings call last month. Discussions between Prologis and more than 300 customers in April found many companies accelerating shipments, Arndt said, adding: “They’re also rerouting volumes and have urgent demand for overflow space.” What those shippers need is short-term flexibility, and they’re turning to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to find it, he said. “3PLs’ space is getting more utilized, with one prominent name describing that they’ve increased their utilization from 83% to over 90%,” Arndt said. 3PLs are looking for more space for importers, including space at ITS Logistics, which has about 5 million square feet of warehousing at three campuses, Brashier said. “I was approached recently by a 3PL looking to onboard us for additional space,” he said. “Those conversations weren’t happening six months ago, and they are now.” ITS Logistics is also seeing more demand for cross-dock services and direct long-distance trucking or drayage to customers further in the US, skipping intermediate distribution centers. “There’s a lot of stuff moving between distribution centers,” Brashier said, a sign that inventory is being repositioned. Such deviation from “normal” supply chains — especially if it proves long lasting — leads to higher costs for shippers as goods they import move to markets farther from ports. Disruption likely will decline as tariffs take effect and shipments drop. “We’ve got to let everything from the China cut-off process through the system,” Brashier said. Going with the ‘overflow’ A Prologis study released this month found that 75% of US real estate demand is tied to regional distribution and local consumer consumption, not global trade. That, in turn, could mean less space available for the overflow of international goods. “Many of our customers source domestically and are relatively unaffected, while others have the capability to adapt or even stand to benefit,” Arndt said. Some Prologis customers are already making decisions, despite uncertainty over US trade policy. “Even in the last two weeks, we signed a lot of leases, and we’ve signed build-to-suits,” Hamid R. Moghadam, Prologis’ chairman and CEO, said during the company’s call. “These customers could have just said, ‘okay, let’s punt on those until we have clarity,’” he said. Spot market volumes soar The disruption caused by the diversion of freight is igniting the truckload spot market in terms of volumes. “We’re seeing record numbers of loads moved nationally, surpassing the highest numbers we saw during the pandemic,” Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. Spot loads moved out of Los Angeles are up 17% from February through May; in the previous two years, the number of loads went down in the same period. Spot loads moved from Los Angeles to Phoenix are up 52% in the February–May period, Croke said. Last week was the busiest week ever for DAT’s spot market load boards, with volumes 6% higher than the week ending Nov. 12, 2021 — the height of the COVID-19 pandemic retail freight surge, he said. In addition, “we’re seeing new lanes pop up because shippers are finding new suppliers,” Croke said. However, even with freight diversions and inventory repositioning, there’s little sign that excess truck capacity is being absorbed by the disruption. “This hasn’t affected spot market rates, which shows there’s enough capacity in the contract and spot markets,” Croke said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Trucking News

Drayage

Truckload

Surface

Tariffs amplify US warehousing demand, disrupt inland truck routes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The main heavy-lift components needed for datacenters are cooling infrastructure such as large-scale air conditioners and backup power infrastructure such as batteries, diesel generators and transformers. </div>

The main heavy-lift components needed for datacenters are cooling infrastructure such as large-scale air conditioners and backup power infrastructure such as batteries, diesel generators and transformers.

<div class="phx-topic">The already rapid construction of datacenters in the US is struggling to keep up with the growing needs of artificial intelligence and cloud storage — and now, tariffs are amplifying those hurdles. Capital expenditures by the five largest cloud infrastructure providers increased by almost 60% in the second quarter of 2024 year over year to $55 billion, according to data from S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, and most of that spending is directed to the building of datacenters that host AI capabilities. Market Intelligence data also shows the datacenter footprint is projected to grow more than 58% — to more than 480 million square feet — between 2024 and 2029. “The datacenter industry has been growing dramatically in the past several years even before the AI explosion two years ago,” said Liu Perkins, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence’s senior research analyst on datacenter infrastructure. “The cloud datacenters have already been in strong growth. But on top of that, this AI growth has triggered a big change, [positioning] the North American market in the leading position, and now the rest of the world is trying to catch up as well.” S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Speaking at the Journal of Commerce Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference in New Orleans last month, Beth Branch, president and CEO of the Port of New Orleans and CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad, said that datacenters offered a “really massive” opportunity for breakbulk and project cargo over the coming years. She referenced Meta’s construction of a $10 billion AI datacenter in northeast Louisiana — which will be Meta’s largest site globally — as an example of the scale of data projects in the pipeline. Growth has been driven further by government investments and incentivization. “The speed that datacenters are being built has become condensed,” a project cargo shipper told the Journal of Commerce. “The velocity that projects like this can be done in is amazing when there is government money available that can be thrown at them.” Dan Thompson, an S&amp;P Global research analyst with a focus on datacenters, said that the industry is “operating behind the curve” in terms of fulfilling demand, and while companies are aggressively building datacenters, questions remain whether they can truly meet the infrastructure needs for emerging technologies such as AI. <h3>Sourcing hurdles could stunt growth </h3>The demand for datacenters has led to a significant manufacturing backlog, which some analysts say could be impacted by tariffs on Chinese products, thus affecting project timelines and import costs. AI and cloud storage are forcing exponential growth in the datacenter industry, and in an industry where manufacturing is already a significant pain point, tariffs on Chinese-sourced infrastructure components are a taboo topic for many datacenter engineering, procurement and construction companies (EPCs). According to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, AI’s growing use of graphic processing units (GPUs) consumes as much as 10 times more energy per chip than traditional central processing units (CPUs). While many of the infrastructure components are subject to manufacturing hurdles, transformer availability continues to pose a critical issue, said Thompson. The datacenter projects — costing about $10 million per megawatt — usually take about 12 to 18 months in the US, with two to three years needed in other countries, he said. While the US tends to get the projects done faster, there are delays — especially on the manufacturing side. As such, many project managers have begun to get ahead of their procurement schedules, opting to head off any growing backlog. “We see a lot of providers, operators, try to secure the supply of key parts and equipment way ahead of time — putting orders in a year or two ahead of their schedule to try and secure the supply,” Perkins said. The main heavy-lift components needed for datacenters are cooling infrastructure — such as large-scale air conditioners — and backup power infrastructure such as batteries, diesel generators and transformers. “A lot of the delays are in getting these large-scale transformers,” said Thompson. “It seems to me that manufacturing can’t keep up. Along with diesel generators — the leads times on those keep getting longer.” Both Perkins and Thompson agreed that tariffs have exacerbated concerns around sourcing, which was already considered a difficult topic before the Trump tariffs were implemented in April. “Suddenly, no one wants to get very precise as to where all of this stuff comes from,” said Thompson. “Most companies have some manufacturing in the United States, but it may just be assembly.” <h3>Destination factors a consideration </h3>Much of the datacenter construction is taking place in rural areas of Ohio, Wyoming, Virginia and Texas. That means things such as the availability of power and roads designed to handle heavy cargo pose significant infrastructure challenges. Much of the equipment is brought in and assembled locally before installation, but large components continue to pose hurdles for the projects. Additionally, beyond the roads, there is a need for terminals designed to handle sufficient pounds per square foot for the heavyweight components being used. While many of the existing datacenters were constructed near hubs and urban areas, there is a growing need to serve more rural areas with lower network connectivity. As such, the development of centers in those areas often presents a catch-22 — depending on existing utility infrastructure but demanding increased output from that same infrastructure. “In addition to the traditional hubs, there’s also emergent places, especially because of the increase of the need,” said Perkins. “That capacity is driving more demand to the utility system, and the utility is not quick enough to catch up to provide the energy required by these datacenters, forcing datacenters to go where energy is available.” There are also the accompanying power centers to construct, needed to supply the vast amounts of energy needed for datacenters and offering another cargo avenue for the heavy-lift industry. “Datacenters do not want to build their own power plants; that’s not their goal. They would much rather take power from the grid,” said Amy Groeschel, principal research analyst, costs and technology, at S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights. “So, the siting of those datacenters will become very key.” And while the growth in datacenter development poses a hurdle for manufacturers, it also offers an opportunity for project cargo vessel operators. “The time on the water is back to the normal situation,” Perkins said. “It was chaos during the pandemic and for a short time post-pandemic, but I think that the shipment part is [back to normal] already. I think the challenge is specifically with manufacturing capability.” Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

The already rapid construction of datacenters in the US is struggling to keep up with the growing needs of artificial intelligence and cloud storage — and now, tariffs are amplifying those hurdles. Capital expenditures by the five largest cloud infrastructure providers increased by almost 60% in the second quarter of 2024 year over year to $55 billion, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, and most of that spending is directed to the building of datacenters that host AI capabilities. Market Intelligence data also shows the datacenter footprint is projected to grow more than 58% — to more than 480 million square feet — between 2024 and 2029. “The datacenter industry has been growing dramatically in the past several years even before the AI explosion two years ago,” said Liu Perkins, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s senior research analyst on datacenter infrastructure. “The cloud datacenters have already been in strong growth. But on top of that, this AI growth has triggered a big change, [positioning] the North American market in the leading position, and now the rest of the world is trying to catch up as well.” S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Speaking at the Journal of Commerce Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference in New Orleans last month, Beth Branch, president and CEO of the Port of New Orleans and CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad, said that datacenters offered a “really massive” opportunity for breakbulk and project cargo over the coming years. She referenced Meta’s construction of a $10 billion AI datacenter in northeast Louisiana — which will be Meta’s largest site globally — as an example of the scale of data projects in the pipeline. Growth has been driven further by government investments and incentivization. “The speed that datacenters are being built has become condensed,” a project cargo shipper told the Journal of Commerce. “The velocity that projects like this can be done in is amazing when there is government money available that can be thrown at them.” Dan Thompson, an S&P Global research analyst with a focus on datacenters, said that the industry is “operating behind the curve” in terms of fulfilling demand, and while companies are aggressively building datacenters, questions remain whether they can truly meet the infrastructure needs for emerging technologies such as AI. Sourcing hurdles could stunt growth The demand for datacenters has led to a significant manufacturing backlog, which some analysts say could be impacted by tariffs on Chinese products, thus affecting project timelines and import costs. AI and cloud storage are forcing exponential growth in the datacenter industry, and in an industry where manufacturing is already a significant pain point, tariffs on Chinese-sourced infrastructure components are a taboo topic for many datacenter engineering, procurement and construction companies (EPCs). According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, AI’s growing use of graphic processing units (GPUs) consumes as much as 10 times more energy per chip than traditional central processing units (CPUs). While many of the infrastructure components are subject to manufacturing hurdles, transformer availability continues to pose a critical issue, said Thompson. The datacenter projects — costing about $10 million per megawatt — usually take about 12 to 18 months in the US, with two to three years needed in other countries, he said. While the US tends to get the projects done faster, there are delays — especially on the manufacturing side. As such, many project managers have begun to get ahead of their procurement schedules, opting to head off any growing backlog. “We see a lot of providers, operators, try to secure the supply of key parts and equipment way ahead of time — putting orders in a year or two ahead of their schedule to try and secure the supply,” Perkins said. The main heavy-lift components needed for datacenters are cooling infrastructure — such as large-scale air conditioners — and backup power infrastructure such as batteries, diesel generators and transformers. “A lot of the delays are in getting these large-scale transformers,” said Thompson. “It seems to me that manufacturing can’t keep up. Along with diesel generators — the leads times on those keep getting longer.” Both Perkins and Thompson agreed that tariffs have exacerbated concerns around sourcing, which was already considered a difficult topic before the Trump tariffs were implemented in April. “Suddenly, no one wants to get very precise as to where all of this stuff comes from,” said Thompson. “Most companies have some manufacturing in the United States, but it may just be assembly.” Destination factors a consideration Much of the datacenter construction is taking place in rural areas of Ohio, Wyoming, Virginia and Texas. That means things such as the availability of power and roads designed to handle heavy cargo pose significant infrastructure challenges. Much of the equipment is brought in and assembled locally before installation, but large components continue to pose hurdles for the projects. Additionally, beyond the roads, there is a need for terminals designed to handle sufficient pounds per square foot for the heavyweight components being used. While many of the existing datacenters were constructed near hubs and urban areas, there is a growing need to serve more rural areas with lower network connectivity. As such, the development of centers in those areas often presents a catch-22 — depending on existing utility infrastructure but demanding increased output from that same infrastructure. “In addition to the traditional hubs, there’s also emergent places, especially because of the increase of the need,” said Perkins. “That capacity is driving more demand to the utility system, and the utility is not quick enough to catch up to provide the energy required by these datacenters, forcing datacenters to go where energy is available.” There are also the accompanying power centers to construct, needed to supply the vast amounts of energy needed for datacenters and offering another cargo avenue for the heavy-lift industry. “Datacenters do not want to build their own power plants; that’s not their goal. They would much rather take power from the grid,” said Amy Groeschel, principal research analyst, costs and technology, at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “So, the siting of those datacenters will become very key.” And while the growth in datacenter development poses a hurdle for manufacturers, it also offers an opportunity for project cargo vessel operators. “The time on the water is back to the normal situation,” Perkins said. “It was chaos during the pandemic and for a short time post-pandemic, but I think that the shipment part is [back to normal] already. I think the challenge is specifically with manufacturing capability.” Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Breakbulk News

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Datacenter growth poses manufacturing hurdle, project carrier opportunity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.</div>

Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers are in a race to find inventory from alternative sources to China, with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warning Thursday they may have until summer to fill stocks or risk seeing shortages “across the board.” Volume from China to the US has fallen 30% to 40% since the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports on April 9, Clerc told analysts on the carrier’s first-quarter earnings call. “Everybody is rewiring their supply chains and looking at bringing in extra inventory based on the SKUs [stock keeping units] that they’re most concerned with,” Clerc said, as shippers waited to see whether there would be any easing of tariffs on China. “Right now, the race is about trying to get your hands on as much inventory as possible,” he added. “They’re drawing on the inventories they have in Canada. They’re drawing on inventories they have in Mexico, and on distributors and other vendors inside the US to see how long they can hoard those goods.” Clerc said in the industrials and automotive sectors, and in commodities such as rare earth and semiconductors, the import decline was “going to bite soon.” “There are certain commodities where you can’t substitute imports freely, both in terms of SKUs but also in terms of quantities, because the capacity there was in China is not readily available elsewhere to support the US market,” he said. While empty shelves in big box retailers in the US were not “right around the corner,” Clerc said if inventory could not be found before the summer “it’s going to start to hurt quite a lot across the board.” Maersk is not as exposed as other carriers to the trans-Pacific disruption. The dramatic drop in US imports from China had little effect on its first-quarter result, with China-US trade comprising only 5% of the carrier’s total volume. Maersk reported a strong start to the year with revenue in the first quarter rising 7.8% year over year to $13.3 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) up 70% at $2.7 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $1.25 billion were six times higher than the year-ago period, as was a net profit of $1.2 billion. The carrier’s volume in the first quarter grew just 0.1% year over year at 2.9 million FEUs, but it was a decline of 6.5% compared with the last quarter of 2024. Its average rates followed a similar trajectory, rising 2.5% year over year to $2,427 per FEU but down 8.7% quarter over quarter. <h3>Geopolitics drags down global volume forecast </h3>Maersk left its full-year EBIT forecast of zero to $3 billion unchanged. But the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty saw the carrier leave open the possibility of negative growth in global container volumes, revising its forecast to a range between -1% and 4%. Its previous forecast was for 4% market growth in volumes. Clerc explained the reasoning behind the revised volume growth, saying the supply-side risks from new tonnage being delivered combined with a return to Red Sea transits have faded this year. Although significant amounts of capacity were still entering the market, there was little chance of carriers returning to the Red Sea this year despite <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apparent-houthi-ceasefire-raises-container-shipping-overcapacity-risk-5999930">an apparent ceasefire with the Houthis announced earlier this week</a> by US President Donald Trump. On the demand side, Clerc pointed to the erratic nature of the US tariffs that were creating new levels of uncertainty. “For me, 145% tariffs on China were not really in the base case that we had ... and some of these other tariffs that have been set on pause for 90 days were also higher than what most people expected,” he said. The Trump administration a month ago announced a 90-day pause for countries open to negotiations, leaving a 10% across-the-board baseline tariff in place during the negotiating period. Some positive trade momentum has begun to emerge. The White House announced a trade deal between the US and the UK Thursday, although no details were provided, and representatives from the US and China are set to meet for trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. “If this resolves itself quickly with a lot of trade deals within the 90 days, and maybe a de-escalation with China, you will see the demand side bounce back to somewhere around 4% for the year,” Clerc said. But if the tariffs became entrenched, it would lead to lower global demand and increase the risk of recession in the US, he added. “Because ultimately, given the lack of alternatives to China, both in terms of scale and breadth, this will have to be passed on to consumers,” Clerc said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers are in a race to find inventory from alternative sources to China, with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warning Thursday they may have until summer to fill stocks or risk seeing shortages “across the board.” Volume from China to the US has fallen 30% to 40% since the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports on April 9, Clerc told analysts on the carrier’s first-quarter earnings call. “Everybody is rewiring their supply chains and looking at bringing in extra inventory based on the SKUs [stock keeping units] that they’re most concerned with,” Clerc said, as shippers waited to see whether there would be any easing of tariffs on China. “Right now, the race is about trying to get your hands on as much inventory as possible,” he added. “They’re drawing on the inventories they have in Canada. They’re drawing on inventories they have in Mexico, and on distributors and other vendors inside the US to see how long they can hoard those goods.” Clerc said in the industrials and automotive sectors, and in commodities such as rare earth and semiconductors, the import decline was “going to bite soon.” “There are certain commodities where you can’t substitute imports freely, both in terms of SKUs but also in terms of quantities, because the capacity there was in China is not readily available elsewhere to support the US market,” he said. While empty shelves in big box retailers in the US were not “right around the corner,” Clerc said if inventory could not be found before the summer “it’s going to start to hurt quite a lot across the board.” Maersk is not as exposed as other carriers to the trans-Pacific disruption. The dramatic drop in US imports from China had little effect on its first-quarter result, with China-US trade comprising only 5% of the carrier’s total volume. Maersk reported a strong start to the year with revenue in the first quarter rising 7.8% year over year to $13.3 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) up 70% at $2.7 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $1.25 billion were six times higher than the year-ago period, as was a net profit of $1.2 billion. The carrier’s volume in the first quarter grew just 0.1% year over year at 2.9 million FEUs, but it was a decline of 6.5% compared with the last quarter of 2024. Its average rates followed a similar trajectory, rising 2.5% year over year to $2,427 per FEU but down 8.7% quarter over quarter. Geopolitics drags down global volume forecast Maersk left its full-year EBIT forecast of zero to $3 billion unchanged. But the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty saw the carrier leave open the possibility of negative growth in global container volumes, revising its forecast to a range between -1% and 4%. Its previous forecast was for 4% market growth in volumes. Clerc explained the reasoning behind the revised volume growth, saying the supply-side risks from new tonnage being delivered combined with a return to Red Sea transits have faded this year. Although significant amounts of capacity were still entering the market, there was little chance of carriers returning to the Red Sea this year despite an apparent ceasefire with the Houthis announced earlier this week by US President Donald Trump. On the demand side, Clerc pointed to the erratic nature of the US tariffs that were creating new levels of uncertainty. “For me, 145% tariffs on China were not really in the base case that we had ... and some of these other tariffs that have been set on pause for 90 days were also higher than what most people expected,” he said. The Trump administration a month ago announced a 90-day pause for countries open to negotiations, leaving a 10% across-the-board baseline tariff in place during the negotiating period. Some positive trade momentum has begun to emerge. The White House announced a trade deal between the US and the UK Thursday, although no details were provided, and representatives from the US and China are set to meet for trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. “If this resolves itself quickly with a lot of trade deals within the 90 days, and maybe a de-escalation with China, you will see the demand side bounce back to somewhere around 4% for the year,” Clerc said. But if the tariffs became entrenched, it would lead to lower global demand and increase the risk of recession in the US, he added. “Because ultimately, given the lack of alternatives to China, both in terms of scale and breadth, this will have to be passed on to consumers,” Clerc said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

US in race to replenish China stocks to avoid summer shortages: Maersk CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sources anticipate the additional rerouting costs in the region will force other ocean carriers to follow suit on similar surcharges.</div>

Sources anticipate the additional rerouting costs in the region will force other ocean carriers to follow suit on similar surcharges.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers are beginning to feel the financial pinch of the sudden escalation in military tensions between India and Pakistan in the form of contingency surcharges levied by mainline ocean carriers. The first known levy comes from CMA CGM, which has slapped an “operational recovery surcharge” of $800 per container for Pakistan exports and $300 per box for imports. The extra charges are due to start May 15 on non-US trade lanes and from June 6 for US cargo. “This decision has been necessitated by the recent geopolitical developments in the region, which are significantly impacting our operations,” the French carrier told Pakistani customers. “To ensure that we continue to provide you with the high level of service you expect from us, we have had to adapt and adjust our services accordingly.” Sources anticipate additional rerouting costs in the region will force other carriers to follow suit on similar surcharges. Indian shippers should also expect some “add-on” charges, albeit milder than that of the Pakistan scale, local forwarders believe. The Indian government last week imposed a ban on Pakistan-origin cargo passing through its ports, raising the risk of schedule disruptions for services with twin market coverage in India and Pakistan. Major liners are frantically adjusting schedules and rotations for their Indian networks calling both markets to keep freight moving, with Hapag-Lloyd choosing Salalah Port in Oman and CMA CGM opting for Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port as alternative transshipment hubs to serve Pakistani trades with feeder support. Salalah is already a key intermediate point for Gemini Cooperation services, including Hapag-Lloyd’s India-Europe string (IOS). “We are actively working on evaluating long-term alternative solutions and rerouting measures to minimize the impact on [customer] supply chain,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a customer advisory. CMA CGM has also announced a new feeder loop, known as the PIKEX, with a rotation of Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Karachi, Port Qasim, Colombo, Karachi and Jebel Ali to handle Pakistan cargo relays. “We have undertaken a thorough review of our maritime services to ensure the continued reliability and safety of ... cargo shipments,” CMA CGM said. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Shippers are beginning to feel the financial pinch of the sudden escalation in military tensions between India and Pakistan in the form of contingency surcharges levied by mainline ocean carriers. The first known levy comes from CMA CGM, which has slapped an “operational recovery surcharge” of $800 per container for Pakistan exports and $300 per box for imports. The extra charges are due to start May 15 on non-US trade lanes and from June 6 for US cargo. “This decision has been necessitated by the recent geopolitical developments in the region, which are significantly impacting our operations,” the French carrier told Pakistani customers. “To ensure that we continue to provide you with the high level of service you expect from us, we have had to adapt and adjust our services accordingly.” Sources anticipate additional rerouting costs in the region will force other carriers to follow suit on similar surcharges. Indian shippers should also expect some “add-on” charges, albeit milder than that of the Pakistan scale, local forwarders believe. The Indian government last week imposed a ban on Pakistan-origin cargo passing through its ports, raising the risk of schedule disruptions for services with twin market coverage in India and Pakistan. Major liners are frantically adjusting schedules and rotations for their Indian networks calling both markets to keep freight moving, with Hapag-Lloyd choosing Salalah Port in Oman and CMA CGM opting for Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Port as alternative transshipment hubs to serve Pakistani trades with feeder support. Salalah is already a key intermediate point for Gemini Cooperation services, including Hapag-Lloyd’s India-Europe string (IOS). “We are actively working on evaluating long-term alternative solutions and rerouting measures to minimize the impact on [customer] supply chain,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a customer advisory. CMA CGM has also announced a new feeder loop, known as the PIKEX, with a rotation of Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Karachi, Port Qasim, Colombo, Karachi and Jebel Ali to handle Pakistan cargo relays. “We have undertaken a thorough review of our maritime services to ensure the continued reliability and safety of ... cargo shipments,” CMA CGM said. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Port News

CMA CGM levies emergency surcharges on Pakistani trade amid India tensions

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”</div>

The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. has halted two services from China to the US and revamped other container services to the East and Gulf coasts as the Trump administration’s tariffs against Beijing continue to weaken freight demand. The world’s largest shipping company said in an advisory Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.” Following the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports, ocean carriers reported seeing container volumes drop by one-third. Hapag-Lloyd and US-based Matson both said volumes out of China dropped 30% after April 9 when the new China tariffs went into effect. The affected MSC services are all part of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/network-realignment-shines-light-on-hub-focused-product-vs-direct-calls-5783930">the carrier’s 2025 network following the dissolution of the 2M Alliance with Maersk</a>. In place of Maersk, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/zim-msc-ink-cooperation-deal-on-services-linking-asia-europe-and-med-5223119">Zim Integrated Shipping Services has signed on to share vessel space and charter slots</a> on some of MSC’s Asia-US routes. The suspensions include the Empire service, which calls three of China’s largest ports and the East Coast ports of New York and New Jersey, Norfolk and Baltimore. The service provided 11,500 TEUs in weekly capacity, according to a report from Hong Kong-based logistics provider Honour Lane Shipping.MSC will also suspend the Pelican service from the Chinese ports of Xiamen and Yantian, along with Vietnam’s Vung Tau and South Korea’s Busan, and calling the Gulf Coast ports of Houston, Mobile and Tampa. Honour Lane said the Pelican service provides weekly capacity ranging between 6,500 and 8,500 TEUs. <h3>Boost SE Asia coverage</h3>The two service suspensions coincide with other interim changes by MSC taking effect this week on four other services that will increase port coverage of Southeast Asia and fill in coverage gaps. The America service from Asia to the US East Coast will stop calling China’s Yantian port, MSC said, while adding a westbound call at Vietnam’s Haiphong port and an eastbound call at the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka. The service will also add East Coast calls at the ports of Savannah and Jacksonville, while dropping a call to Norfolk. The Amberjack service from China to the US Southeast will drop a call at China’s Nansha port but keep calling other major Chinese ports. Likewise, the Amberjack’s US rotation will now make its first two calls at the ports of New York-New Jersey and Baltimore and drop service to the Port of Wilmington, North Carolina. MSC’s Emerald service will add an outbound call at Taiwan’s Kaohsiung port. The service’s US leg will stop calling Jacksonville and Baltimore but add calls to Norfolk and Boston. The Lone Star service from Asia to the Gulf Coast will add a call at China’s Yantian port, along with adding calls to Singapore and Vung Tau. The service’s US rotation will drop a call at the Port of New Orleans. The MSC suspensions, among the first big ones to hit the East and Gulf coasts, follow similar steps for West Coast services that are also heavily exposed to Chinese freight. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that MSC also suspended its Orient service to Long Beach, while OOCL suspended its Pacific South China Express service to Long Beach.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. has halted two services from China to the US and revamped other container services to the East and Gulf coasts as the Trump administration’s tariffs against Beijing continue to weaken freight demand. The world’s largest shipping company said in an advisory Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.” Following the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports, ocean carriers reported seeing container volumes drop by one-third. Hapag-Lloyd and US-based Matson both said volumes out of China dropped 30% after April 9 when the new China tariffs went into effect. The affected MSC services are all part of the carrier’s 2025 network following the dissolution of the 2M Alliance with Maersk . In place of Maersk, Zim Integrated Shipping Services has signed on to share vessel space and charter slots on some of MSC’s Asia-US routes. The suspensions include the Empire service, which calls three of China’s largest ports and the East Coast ports of New York and New Jersey, Norfolk and Baltimore. The service provided 11,500 TEUs in weekly capacity, according to a report from Hong Kong-based logistics provider Honour Lane Shipping. MSC will also suspend the Pelican service from the Chinese ports of Xiamen and Yantian, along with Vietnam’s Vung Tau and South Korea’s Busan, and calling the Gulf Coast ports of Houston, Mobile and Tampa. Honour Lane said the Pelican service provides weekly capacity ranging between 6,500 and 8,500 TEUs. Boost SE Asia coverage The two service suspensions coincide with other interim changes by MSC taking effect this week on four other services that will increase port coverage of Southeast Asia and fill in coverage gaps. The America service from Asia to the US East Coast will stop calling China’s Yantian port, MSC said, while adding a westbound call at Vietnam’s Haiphong port and an eastbound call at the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka. The service will also add East Coast calls at the ports of Savannah and Jacksonville, while dropping a call to Norfolk. The Amberjack service from China to the US Southeast will drop a call at China’s Nansha port but keep calling other major Chinese ports. Likewise, the Amberjack’s US rotation will now make its first two calls at the ports of New York-New Jersey and Baltimore and drop service to the Port of Wilmington, North Carolina. MSC’s Emerald service will add an outbound call at Taiwan’s Kaohsiung port. The service’s US leg will stop calling Jacksonville and Baltimore but add calls to Norfolk and Boston. The Lone Star service from Asia to the Gulf Coast will add a call at China’s Yantian port, along with adding calls to Singapore and Vung Tau. The service’s US rotation will drop a call at the Port of New Orleans. The MSC suspensions, among the first big ones to hit the East and Gulf coasts, follow similar steps for West Coast services that are also heavily exposed to Chinese freight. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that MSC also suspended its Orient service to Long Beach, while OOCL suspended its Pacific South China Express service to Long Beach. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

North American ports

MSC suspends two US services, rejigs others as tariffs hit Chinese imports

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince. </div>

The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. <h3>Yanqui go home! </h3>I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. <h3>Voluntary restraint </h3>In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. <h3>The Plaza Accord </h3>The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. <h3>China and the WTO </h3>Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>. </div>

Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. Yanqui go home! I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. Voluntary restraint In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. The Plaza Accord The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. China and the WTO Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

A history lesson while we watch current US trade policy unfold

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.</div>

The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.

<div class="phx-topic">This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. <h3>‘Roulette game’ </h3>You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships</a> will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/air-cargo-volumes-fall-on-trans-pacific-as-us-de-minimis-changes-loom-5993599">removal of de minimis</a> has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. ‘Roulette game’ You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the removal of de minimis has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Navigating the current supply chain is a matter of choosing your poison

GEP and S&P Global produce this index from S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys. The variables are the JP Morgan Global Quantity of Purchases Index, the All Items Supply Shortages Indicator, the Transport Price Pressure Indicator and Manufacturing PMI Comments Tracker data, stockpiling levels due to supply or price concerns and backlog activity due to staff and item shortages. [GEP](https://www.gep.com/knowledge-bank/global-supply-chain-volatility-index)

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (GEP and S&P Global)

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked sailings between May 1 and June 30.</div>

The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked sailings between May 1 and June 30.

<div class="phx-topic">Correction: A previous version of this story attributed blank sailings for the Northwest Seaport Alliance to the Port of Prince Rupert, British Columbia.Ports and marine terminals along the US West Coast are bracing for what could be a massive drop in imports moving across their docks in the coming weeks as the tangible impacts of blank sailings and half-empty container ships arriving from China become apparent. The effects of the US trade war with Beijing will be most visible in Southern California, where stakeholders at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the US’ busiest gateway — expect a huge cut in imports in May, with a 35% decline in Los Angeles and 38% in Long Beach compared with their normal monthly volumes. “Leading indicators forecast a significant dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked, or canceled, sailings between May 1 and June 30, according to both ports. That number, which could rise, means that about 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of imports won’t be landing in Southern California each week for the next few weeks. A spokesperson for the Port of Los Angeles said 17 blank sailings are scheduled for May and 12 for June. Long Beach is scheduled to have 13 blanked sailings in May and 17 in June, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s chief operating officer. The impact of the blanked sailings will vary from terminal to terminal depending on the lines that call there and the origin of the imports, said Alan McCorkle, president and CEO of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles. “We’re all experiencing it to some degree,” he said. “We expect a couple of blanks in May.” When cargo volumes drop precipitously, terminal operators generally reduce their gate hours, McCorkle said. “We’ll close two or three gates a week to right-size our operation.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1c1d9578-c129-4d4e-a136-e220473bd136"></dynamic-object></div>While dockworkers won’t face lower pay or job cuts given their contract protections, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) nonetheless savaged the Trump administration this week for implementing the tariffs and for the trade dispute they ignited with China. “Tariffs are taxes. These and other reckless, shortsighted policies have begun to devastate American workers, harm critical sectors of the economy, and line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy at the expense of hardworking families,” the union said in a statement. “Hundreds of thousands of jobs are dependent on or connected to global trade,” the ILWU added. “Constricted trade between the world’s two largest economies could lead to devastating job losses for workers employed in the global supply chain.” <h3>Imports to drop in Oakland and NWSA </h3>Further up the West Coast, the Port of Oakland likewise anticipates a drop in vessel calls and import volumes over the next two months. “In recent weeks, vessel service reductions have increased,” a port spokesperson said. “Between April and June, 39 blank sailings have been announced across multiple shipping alliances calling Oakland. These reductions tighten available vessel capacity for both imports and exports.” A spokesperson for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma said carriers are scheduled to blank 17 sailings to the port complex in May and June, five more than in the same period last year. And although import volumes through the NWSA have soared 22.4% year over year through March, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, that appears to be changing. “We are seeing some vessels coming in with less cargo than anticipated, and we are hearing from exporters and importers directly on canceled orders, especially with China,” the spokesperson said. “These impacts are real and will likely be reflected in our data in the coming months.” China accounts for 51% of NWSA imports and 40% of the complex’s total trade, the spokesperson noted. <h3>Vancouver unaffected </h3>The Port of Vancouver does not anticipate a drop in import volumes due to the US tariffs on imports from China, said Rosanna Lau, manager of trade development at the Vancouver-Fraser Port Authority. “Our forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that container volumes at the Port of Vancouver will remain consistent with seasonal norms,” Lau said. “It is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of container traffic moving through the port is Canadian trade and not directly affected by US tariffs.”Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Correction: A previous version of this story attributed blank sailings for the Northwest Seaport Alliance to the Port of Prince Rupert, British Columbia. Ports and marine terminals along the US West Coast are bracing for what could be a massive drop in imports moving across their docks in the coming weeks as the tangible impacts of blank sailings and half-empty container ships arriving from China become apparent. The effects of the US trade war with Beijing will be most visible in Southern California, where stakeholders at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the US’ busiest gateway — expect a huge cut in imports in May, with a 35% decline in Los Angeles and 38% in Long Beach compared with their normal monthly volumes. “Leading indicators forecast a significant dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked, or canceled, sailings between May 1 and June 30, according to both ports. That number, which could rise, means that about 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of imports won’t be landing in Southern California each week for the next few weeks. A spokesperson for the Port of Los Angeles said 17 blank sailings are scheduled for May and 12 for June. Long Beach is scheduled to have 13 blanked sailings in May and 17 in June, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s chief operating officer. The impact of the blanked sailings will vary from terminal to terminal depending on the lines that call there and the origin of the imports, said Alan McCorkle, president and CEO of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles. “We’re all experiencing it to some degree,” he said. “We expect a couple of blanks in May.” When cargo volumes drop precipitously, terminal operators generally reduce their gate hours, McCorkle said. “We’ll close two or three gates a week to right-size our operation.” While dockworkers won’t face lower pay or job cuts given their contract protections, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) nonetheless savaged the Trump administration this week for implementing the tariffs and for the trade dispute they ignited with China. “Tariffs are taxes. These and other reckless, shortsighted policies have begun to devastate American workers, harm critical sectors of the economy, and line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy at the expense of hardworking families,” the union said in a statement. “Hundreds of thousands of jobs are dependent on or connected to global trade,” the ILWU added. “Constricted trade between the world’s two largest economies could lead to devastating job losses for workers employed in the global supply chain.” Imports to drop in Oakland and NWSA Further up the West Coast, the Port of Oakland likewise anticipates a drop in vessel calls and import volumes over the next two months. “In recent weeks, vessel service reductions have increased,” a port spokesperson said. “Between April and June, 39 blank sailings have been announced across multiple shipping alliances calling Oakland. These reductions tighten available vessel capacity for both imports and exports.” A spokesperson for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma said carriers are scheduled to blank 17 sailings to the port complex in May and June, five more than in the same period last year. And although import volumes through the NWSA have soared 22.4% year over year through March, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, that appears to be changing. “We are seeing some vessels coming in with less cargo than anticipated, and we are hearing from exporters and importers directly on canceled orders, especially with China,” the spokesperson said. “These impacts are real and will likely be reflected in our data in the coming months.” China accounts for 51% of NWSA imports and 40% of the complex’s total trade, the spokesperson noted. Vancouver unaffected The Port of Vancouver does not anticipate a drop in import volumes due to the US tariffs on imports from China, said Rosanna Lau, manager of trade development at the Vancouver-Fraser Port Authority. “Our forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that container volumes at the Port of Vancouver will remain consistent with seasonal norms,” Lau said. “It is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of container traffic moving through the port is Canadian trade and not directly affected by US tariffs.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Marine terminals

Uneasy West Coast ports watch as first signs of trade dispute with China emerge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A range of factors including full yards, labor unrest and carrier network changes are making it difficult for the hubs to clear container bottlenecks.</div>

A range of factors including full yards, labor unrest and carrier network changes are making it difficult for the hubs to clear container bottlenecks.

<div class="phx-topic">North Europe’s largest port gateways are continuing to struggle with persistent congestion that has delayed vessels and hampered container operations at the hubs for months. Full container yards, labor unrest, staff shortages and changing carrier alliance networks are among the challenges being piled on top of a steady inbound volume from Asia. “This is systemic by nature and will resurface on a regular basis,” Scan Global Logistics said in a market update this week. The Denmark-based forwarder also noted that the launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk “complicates efforts to sustain operational efficiency while the new rotations are phased in.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform warned that “heavily disrupted operations” were being experienced at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and London Gateway. A national strike in Belgium on April 29, the fourth strike in the country within the past few months, shut down the Port of Antwerp for the day as workers from the private and public sectors protested recent budget cuts made by the federal government. There were 19 vessels waiting to depart from Antwerp on Thursday and 20 waiting to enter the port. SeaExplorer noted that already congested yards there have seen a seven-day average vessel waiting time of about 2.19 days; Scan Global put the seven-day waiting time in Antwerp as high as seven days. <h3>Low-water advisory hampers inland shipping </h3>Labor shortages at Rotterdam because of national holidays are impacting container operations at the port, according to SeaExplorer, with vessels waiting for more than a day to berth. Intermodal operator Contargo told customers in an advisory Wednesday that average waiting times for the handling of barges were 71 hours in Rotterdam and 101 hours in Antwerp. A low-water advisory is also in place on the Rhine River, limiting the volume that can be carried by barges on Europe’s largest inland waterway connecting the industrial heartland of southern Germany to Rotterdam and Antwerp. Container delivery restrictions were imposed by Hamburg’s main terminal operator HHLA in April to tackle yard congestion. Vessel waiting times at Hamburg are currently up to five days, according to Scan Global. On top of ships being delayed in Hamburg, rail shipments are taking up to 10 hours to process and disrupting all terminals in the port. Intermodal logistics operator Metrans said trains to the German ports of Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven were experiencing long delays due to unplanned line closures around Hannover following a landslide in the area. Detour routes were up to 200 kilometers long and battling with overcapacity that was stopping trains and blocking traffic to and from Rotterdam and the inland rail hub of Duisburg. The disrupted train circulation was also having a major impact on service to and from Hamburg. In France, the Port of Le Havre is struggling to catch up with container backlogs following several strikes held in April, while the UK ports of Felixstowe and Southampton are also experiencing lengthy vessel delays. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

North Europe’s largest port gateways are continuing to struggle with persistent congestion that has delayed vessels and hampered container operations at the hubs for months. Full container yards, labor unrest, staff shortages and changing carrier alliance networks are among the challenges being piled on top of a steady inbound volume from Asia. “This is systemic by nature and will resurface on a regular basis,” Scan Global Logistics said in a market update this week. The Denmark-based forwarder also noted that the launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk “complicates efforts to sustain operational efficiency while the new rotations are phased in.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform warned that “heavily disrupted operations” were being experienced at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and London Gateway. A national strike in Belgium on April 29, the fourth strike in the country within the past few months, shut down the Port of Antwerp for the day as workers from the private and public sectors protested recent budget cuts made by the federal government. There were 19 vessels waiting to depart from Antwerp on Thursday and 20 waiting to enter the port. SeaExplorer noted that already congested yards there have seen a seven-day average vessel waiting time of about 2.19 days; Scan Global put the seven-day waiting time in Antwerp as high as seven days. Low-water advisory hampers inland shipping Labor shortages at Rotterdam because of national holidays are impacting container operations at the port, according to SeaExplorer, with vessels waiting for more than a day to berth. Intermodal operator Contargo told customers in an advisory Wednesday that average waiting times for the handling of barges were 71 hours in Rotterdam and 101 hours in Antwerp. A low-water advisory is also in place on the Rhine River, limiting the volume that can be carried by barges on Europe’s largest inland waterway connecting the industrial heartland of southern Germany to Rotterdam and Antwerp. Container delivery restrictions were imposed by Hamburg’s main terminal operator HHLA in April to tackle yard congestion. Vessel waiting times at Hamburg are currently up to five days, according to Scan Global. On top of ships being delayed in Hamburg, rail shipments are taking up to 10 hours to process and disrupting all terminals in the port. Intermodal logistics operator Metrans said trains to the German ports of Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven were experiencing long delays due to unplanned line closures around Hannover following a landslide in the area. Detour routes were up to 200 kilometers long and battling with overcapacity that was stopping trains and blocking traffic to and from Rotterdam and the inland rail hub of Duisburg. The disrupted train circulation was also having a major impact on service to and from Hamburg. In France, the Port of Le Havre is struggling to catch up with container backlogs following several strikes held in April, while the UK ports of Felixstowe and Southampton are also experiencing lengthy vessel delays. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

International ports

No end to the congestion choking gateway ports in North Europe

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.</div>

US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.

<div class="phx-topic">Container line executives warn that the inevitable rebound in Asian imports that will come at some point after the expected plunge in volumes linked to US tariffs may overwhelm major US ports because the supporting systems aren’t significantly better prepared than they were during the pandemic. The timing and scale of the rebound isn’t yet known. But import volumes from Asia are expected to recover eventually either because tariffs are eased or cargo owners ultimately decide there is no relief coming and eat the higher costs due to a need to replenish inventories. “Regardless of whether the demand will go up two times or come back to a level of about eight weeks ago, the system is not fundamentally better than it was five years ago,” Charles van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, said at the Georgia International Trade Conference this week. “Right now ... volumes are down [30%-40%] and if that goes up, the sheer surge will test the system and disruption cannot be avoided.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be less at the marine terminals and more outside the truck gates. There, importers and consignees could face limited availability of warehousing and chassis, while a rush of international intermodal could sap rail car supply, carrier executives told the conference. “If our terminals start working at 70%, 80%, 90% capacity and beyond on a regular basis for weeks, the system will crumble,” said Fabio Santucci, president of US operations for Mediterranean Shipping Co. Santucci added that if import dwell times at marine terminals exceed 10 days, ports can’t dig out of backlogs. <h3>‘Uncertainty’ the key word </h3>Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North America president, fears a rise in abandoned containers as some US exporters walk away from Chinese contracts due to 125% retaliatory Chinese tariffs on low-value US commodities. Even more alarming would be if US importers begin to abandon higher-value cargo, something he said would signal a potential wave of bankruptcies. Some smaller US importers are already struggling with backing a larger surety bond thanks to higher US tariff costs. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-capacity-cuts-accelerating-amid-sharp-reduction-in-chinese-cargo-5992769">Estimates of the plunge in China bookings from carriers and forwarders range from 30% to up to 50%</a>. The resumption of shipping last week from China by Walmart, Target and other big box retailers after they paused US shipments earlier in the month suggests a rebound is already building, executives at two major carriers told the Journal of Commerce. “I think the key word is ‘uncertainty,’” Santucci told the conference. “Sixty to 70% of customers are reevaluating shipment out of China. They’re either pausing [or] they’ve asked for shipments to be brought back to China.” He said customers are requesting changes to import and inland delivery destinations while containers “are on the water,” adding there’s been a spike in requests to hold shipments at transshipment ports before being loaded onto US-bound vessels. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container line executives warn that the inevitable rebound in Asian imports that will come at some point after the expected plunge in volumes linked to US tariffs may overwhelm major US ports because the supporting systems aren’t significantly better prepared than they were during the pandemic. The timing and scale of the rebound isn’t yet known. But import volumes from Asia are expected to recover eventually either because tariffs are eased or cargo owners ultimately decide there is no relief coming and eat the higher costs due to a need to replenish inventories. “Regardless of whether the demand will go up two times or come back to a level of about eight weeks ago, the system is not fundamentally better than it was five years ago,” Charles van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, said at the Georgia International Trade Conference this week. “Right now ... volumes are down [30%-40%] and if that goes up, the sheer surge will test the system and disruption cannot be avoided.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be less at the marine terminals and more outside the truck gates. There, importers and consignees could face limited availability of warehousing and chassis, while a rush of international intermodal could sap rail car supply, carrier executives told the conference. “If our terminals start working at 70%, 80%, 90% capacity and beyond on a regular basis for weeks, the system will crumble,” said Fabio Santucci, president of US operations for Mediterranean Shipping Co. Santucci added that if import dwell times at marine terminals exceed 10 days, ports can’t dig out of backlogs. ‘Uncertainty’ the key word Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North America president, fears a rise in abandoned containers as some US exporters walk away from Chinese contracts due to 125% retaliatory Chinese tariffs on low-value US commodities. Even more alarming would be if US importers begin to abandon higher-value cargo, something he said would signal a potential wave of bankruptcies. Some smaller US importers are already struggling with backing a larger surety bond thanks to higher US tariff costs. Estimates of the plunge in China bookings from carriers and forwarders range from 30% to up to 50% . The resumption of shipping last week from China by Walmart, Target and other big box retailers after they paused US shipments earlier in the month suggests a rebound is already building, executives at two major carriers told the Journal of Commerce. “I think the key word is ‘uncertainty,’” Santucci told the conference. “Sixty to 70% of customers are reevaluating shipment out of China. They’re either pausing [or] they’ve asked for shipments to be brought back to China.” He said customers are requesting changes to import and inland delivery destinations while containers “are on the water,” adding there’s been a spike in requests to hold shipments at transshipment ports before being loaded onto US-bound vessels. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Port infrastructure

Container lines warn of congestion threat when Asia imports rebound

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With a “reintroduced” ground freight shipping option, UPS hopes to tempt LTL shippers seeking alternatives to LTL rates that are up 12% on average from mid-2023. </div>

With a “reintroduced” ground freight shipping option, UPS hopes to tempt LTL shippers seeking alternatives to LTL rates that are up 12% on average from mid-2023.

<div class="phx-topic">UPS no longer owns a less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiary, but that doesn’t mean it’s lost all interest in LTL freight. The largest US package carrier has “reintroduced” UPS Ground with Freight Pricing, a service option that targets shipments weighing more than 150 pounds typically hauled by LTL carriers as part of a palletized shipment. “This positions us to be the only small package carrier that offers parcel-like pricing for less-than-truckload shipments, which is a true differentiator,” Carol B. Tomé, UPS CEO, said in a first-quarter earnings call last Tuesday. UPS’ major small package competitor, FedEx, owns its own LTL carrier, although it plans to spin off FedEx Freight in 2026. The service is being revived by UPS at a time when LTL shipping costs are rising, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) up 5.5% year over year in March and 6% on average in the first quarter. Overall, the selling prices the PPI represents have climbed 12.1% since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL carriers, collapsed in July 2023. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="397d0614-9019-449a-8ca0-64a882efbfbf"></dynamic-object></div>As LTL prices rise, shippers show more interest in alternative modes and shipping options. “We see customers choosing other options in certain instances when we’re taking rate increases,” Matthew J. Batteh, CFO of LTL carrier Saia, said in an earnings call last week. “Customers always challenge the pricing increases that we propose.” With excess truckload capacity available and truckload rates still climbing out of the trough they entered in 2023, some shippers have tried to consolidate LTL shipments into truckloads. But parcel and package shippers have long vied for LTL freight through hundredweight programs and other options similar to ground freight pricing. “They’re bringing back LPL or less-than-pallet load, which they used to have before they bought the LTL business [UPS Freight, sold in 2021],” said Satish Jindel, president of research firm SJ Consulting Group, which covers both LTL and parcel business. “They’re looking for shipments that are higher revenue per parcel.” UPS believes it can move those shipments at a better rate for shippers than an LTL carrier. Boxes, shrink-wrapped together on a pallet, are at the core of LTL volumes, Jindel said. “Shipments under 250 pounds represent 25% of total LTL volumes, and under 500 pounds 45% of the total. Those shipments could be sitting ducks for UPS, depending on how they go after them. They don’t want the pallets, just the nice brown boxes.” UPS sold UPS Freight, now TForce Freight, to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ups-freight-sold-to-canadas-tfi-for-800-million-5250895">TFI International for $800 million</a>. Under the 2021 sale agreement, TFI agreed to continue to utilize UPS’ domestic package network to fulfill shipments for five years. <h3>UPS, Amazon shifting freight </h3>UPS is also looking to bolster US domestic package volume, which fell 3.5% year over year in the first quarter. Ground package volume dropped 2.5% in the quarter, while volumes moving through its deferred service fell 17.3% from a year ago. That countered a 7.1% increase in international package volume, pulling UPS’ total volume down 1.9%. Some of the decline came from UPS’ reduced reliance on Amazon, which UPS calls a “glide-down” in volume. The company said it would close 73 facilities and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ups-reports-fall-first-quarter-revenue-2025-04-29/">cut 20,000 jobs</a> as part of that reduction. UPS plans to reduce its Amazon volume by 50% by 2026, largely by dropping unprofitable shipments from Amazon fulfillment centers. “The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable and it is healthy volume,” Tomé said. UPS first announced the revival of the ground freight pricing offering in early April, alongside UPS Ground Saver, a business-to-consumer shipping option that offers a slower, economy version of UPS ground package service for less urgent packages. Coincidentally, the announcement came the same day Amazon launched its foray <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/amazon-ltl-offering-is-no-threat-to-standalone-carriers-odfl-5990215">into the LTL business</a>. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. Journal of Commerce Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report. </div>

UPS no longer owns a less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiary, but that doesn’t mean it’s lost all interest in LTL freight. The largest US package carrier has “reintroduced” UPS Ground with Freight Pricing, a service option that targets shipments weighing more than 150 pounds typically hauled by LTL carriers as part of a palletized shipment. “This positions us to be the only small package carrier that offers parcel-like pricing for less-than-truckload shipments, which is a true differentiator,” Carol B. Tomé, UPS CEO, said in a first-quarter earnings call last Tuesday. UPS’ major small package competitor, FedEx, owns its own LTL carrier, although it plans to spin off FedEx Freight in 2026. The service is being revived by UPS at a time when LTL shipping costs are rising, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) up 5.5% year over year in March and 6% on average in the first quarter. Overall, the selling prices the PPI represents have climbed 12.1% since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL carriers, collapsed in July 2023. As LTL prices rise, shippers show more interest in alternative modes and shipping options. “We see customers choosing other options in certain instances when we’re taking rate increases,” Matthew J. Batteh, CFO of LTL carrier Saia, said in an earnings call last week. “Customers always challenge the pricing increases that we propose.” With excess truckload capacity available and truckload rates still climbing out of the trough they entered in 2023, some shippers have tried to consolidate LTL shipments into truckloads. But parcel and package shippers have long vied for LTL freight through hundredweight programs and other options similar to ground freight pricing. “They’re bringing back LPL or less-than-pallet load, which they used to have before they bought the LTL business [UPS Freight, sold in 2021],” said Satish Jindel, president of research firm SJ Consulting Group, which covers both LTL and parcel business. “They’re looking for shipments that are higher revenue per parcel.” UPS believes it can move those shipments at a better rate for shippers than an LTL carrier. Boxes, shrink-wrapped together on a pallet, are at the core of LTL volumes, Jindel said. “Shipments under 250 pounds represent 25% of total LTL volumes, and under 500 pounds 45% of the total. Those shipments could be sitting ducks for UPS, depending on how they go after them. They don’t want the pallets, just the nice brown boxes.” UPS sold UPS Freight, now TForce Freight, to TFI International for $800 million . Under the 2021 sale agreement, TFI agreed to continue to utilize UPS’ domestic package network to fulfill shipments for five years. UPS, Amazon shifting freight UPS is also looking to bolster US domestic package volume, which fell 3.5% year over year in the first quarter. Ground package volume dropped 2.5% in the quarter, while volumes moving through its deferred service fell 17.3% from a year ago. That countered a 7.1% increase in international package volume, pulling UPS’ total volume down 1.9%. Some of the decline came from UPS’ reduced reliance on Amazon, which UPS calls a “glide-down” in volume. The company said it would close 73 facilities and cut 20,000 jobs as part of that reduction. UPS plans to reduce its Amazon volume by 50% by 2026, largely by dropping unprofitable shipments from Amazon fulfillment centers. “The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable and it is healthy volume,” Tomé said. UPS first announced the revival of the ground freight pricing offering in early April, alongside UPS Ground Saver, a business-to-consumer shipping option that offers a slower, economy version of UPS ground package service for less urgent packages. Coincidentally, the announcement came the same day Amazon launched its foray into the LTL business . Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com . Journal of Commerce Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report.

UPS seeks reentry into LTL space as LTL costs climb higher

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market. </div>

The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market.

<div class="phx-topic">US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Houthi militants operating from Yemen have agreed to stop their 18-month-long series of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If true, the apparent ceasefire would raise the prospects of major ocean carriers returning to Suez Canal transits this year, something that would result in significant vessel overcapacity in the container shipping market.While not a formal deal, Trump said the Houthis have agreed to stop their missile and drone attacks on vessels that began in late 2023 as part of what the militants said was a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war.The Houthis have not confirmed that a deal with the US has been made. US bombings of militant positions in Yemen have intensified in the last two months. “They don’t want to fight anymore. They just don’t want to fight. We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings,” Trump said at the White House. “They have capitulated, but more importantly we will take their word. They say they won’t be blowing up ships anymore.” Approximately 1 million to 2 million TEUs of capacity would become available if the container shipping industry returned to Suez Canal transits and no longer needed to use the lengthy diversion around southern Africa, according to Maersk estimates. An estimated 10% of global capacity has been absorbed by the longer transits, according to shipping association BIMCO. The container shipping order book is currently just over 7 million TEUs, representing 25% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to be particularly acute over the next two years. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January but didn’t provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Small Asian container lines along with CMA CGM have transited the Red Sea amid Houthi threats, yet it is unclear whether the apparent de-escalation announced by Trump will change the risk calculations of carriers that include crew safety and insurance costs. The Houthis – who on Wednesday said it was the US who “backed down,” not them, according to various news reports – warned they will continue to target Israel. Zim Integrated Shipping Services, based in Israel, has been specifically targeted by Houthi militants. A return to a safe shipping environment in the region would also be a boon to Gulf-based ocean shippers, reopening a direct east-west route rather than forcing cargo owners to transship via feeder vessels or even tap overland trucking. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com.">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Houthi militants operating from Yemen have agreed to stop their 18-month-long series of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If true, the apparent ceasefire would raise the prospects of major ocean carriers returning to Suez Canal transits this year, something that would result in significant vessel overcapacity in the container shipping market. While not a formal deal, Trump said the Houthis have agreed to stop their missile and drone attacks on vessels that began in late 2023 as part of what the militants said was a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis have not confirmed that a deal with the US has been made. US bombings of militant positions in Yemen have intensified in the last two months. “They don’t want to fight anymore. They just don’t want to fight. We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings,” Trump said at the White House. “They have capitulated, but more importantly we will take their word. They say they won’t be blowing up ships anymore.” Approximately 1 million to 2 million TEUs of capacity would become available if the container shipping industry returned to Suez Canal transits and no longer needed to use the lengthy diversion around southern Africa, according to Maersk estimates. An estimated 10% of global capacity has been absorbed by the longer transits, according to shipping association BIMCO. The container shipping order book is currently just over 7 million TEUs, representing 25% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to be particularly acute over the next two years. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January but didn’t provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Small Asian container lines along with CMA CGM have transited the Red Sea amid Houthi threats, yet it is unclear whether the apparent de-escalation announced by Trump will change the risk calculations of carriers that include crew safety and insurance costs. The Houthis – who on Wednesday said it was the US who “backed down,” not them, according to various news reports – warned they will continue to target Israel. Zim Integrated Shipping Services, based in Israel, has been specifically targeted by Houthi militants. A return to a safe shipping environment in the region would also be a boon to Gulf-based ocean shippers, reopening a direct east-west route rather than forcing cargo owners to transship via feeder vessels or even tap overland trucking. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Apparent Houthi ceasefire raises container shipping overcapacity risk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The restrictions have “effectively” made direct vessel calls to either Karachi or Port Qasim on India services operationally impossible, according to major container lines. </div>

The restrictions have “effectively” made direct vessel calls to either Karachi or Port Qasim on India services operationally impossible, according to major container lines.

<div class="phx-topic">The Indian government on Friday imposed an abrupt ban on Pakistan-origin cargo passing through its ports, raising the risk of schedule disruptions for services with twin market coverage in India and Pakistan amid rapidly deteriorating political relations between the two neighbor nations. “Direct or indirect import or transit of all goods originating in or exported from Pakistan, whether or not freely importable or otherwise permitted, shall be prohibited with immediate effect, until further orders,” the government said in a May 2 decree. “This restriction is imposed in the interest of national security and public policy.” Local mainline carrier sources told the Journal of Commerce the restrictions have “effectively” made direct vessel calls to either Karachi or Port Qasim operationally impossible for services also calling India. CMA CGM, Mediterranean Shipping Co., Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE), all have Pakistan-linked westbound services out of West India, with connecting loops to North America and North Europe. Carriers are already troubleshooting to ward off potential customs issues at Indian ports for vessels that were already in transit. The CMA CGM Bianca, for example, has turned back to Port Qasim to offload Pakistan containers before “re-proceeding” to India, delaying the ship’s arrival in Nhava Sheva by at least three days, carrier sources said. A spokesperson at Maersk said the carrier is closely monitoring the developments and working on contingency plans, even though it does not facilitate direct export/import movements between the two countries. Maersk operates two long-haul services with stops in Pakistan, the FI3 (Northeast Asia-India) and Mawingu Express (India-Middle East-Africa) routes, as well as multiple warehousing centers in and around Karachi.  Other notable long-haul services calling Pakistan include MSC’s Indus and ONE’s WIN loops, both of which connect to the US East Coast, and ONE’s India-North Europe IOX string. Connor Helm, manager of ocean procurement at forwarder Flexport, voiced concerns over potential additional changes resulting from the India-Pakistan standoff. “Carriers have not issued official notices, but AIS tracking of USEC services like Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI and CMA-CGM’s Indamex reveals [routing] changes,” Connor told the Journal of Commerce. “Hapag-Lloyd’s vessel Nagoya Express, after calling Port Qasim on May 1, was due in Nhava Sheva on May 3 but diverted south to Colombo [in Sri Lanka] likely to transship Pakistani cargo to the AA7 or US4 services for the US East Coast.” The recent ocean freight yield for carriers out of Karachi has been higher than that of West India for USEC loads by $300 to $500 per container, which, for Hapag-Lloyd spot bookings to New York, stood at $3,285 per TEU and $3,533 per FEU as of Friday, industry data shows.Industry sources also believe those diversions could become a new source of transshipment gains for the Port of Colombo after the Red Sea-linked buildup.  Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

The Indian government on Friday imposed an abrupt ban on Pakistan-origin cargo passing through its ports, raising the risk of schedule disruptions for services with twin market coverage in India and Pakistan amid rapidly deteriorating political relations between the two neighbor nations. “Direct or indirect import or transit of all goods originating in or exported from Pakistan, whether or not freely importable or otherwise permitted, shall be prohibited with immediate effect, until further orders,” the government said in a May 2 decree. “This restriction is imposed in the interest of national security and public policy.” Local mainline carrier sources told the Journal of Commerce the restrictions have “effectively” made direct vessel calls to either Karachi or Port Qasim operationally impossible for services also calling India. CMA CGM, Mediterranean Shipping Co., Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE), all have Pakistan-linked westbound services out of West India, with connecting loops to North America and North Europe. Carriers are already troubleshooting to ward off potential customs issues at Indian ports for vessels that were already in transit. The CMA CGM Bianca, for example, has turned back to Port Qasim to offload Pakistan containers before “re-proceeding” to India, delaying the ship’s arrival in Nhava Sheva by at least three days, carrier sources said. A spokesperson at Maersk said the carrier is closely monitoring the developments and working on contingency plans, even though it does not facilitate direct export/import movements between the two countries. Maersk operates two long-haul services with stops in Pakistan, the FI3 (Northeast Asia-India) and Mawingu Express (India-Middle East-Africa) routes, as well as multiple warehousing centers in and around Karachi.  Other notable long-haul services calling Pakistan include MSC’s Indus and ONE’s WIN loops, both of which connect to the US East Coast, and ONE’s India-North Europe IOX string. Connor Helm, manager of ocean procurement at forwarder Flexport, voiced concerns over potential additional changes resulting from the India-Pakistan standoff. “Carriers have not issued official notices, but AIS tracking of USEC services like Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI and CMA-CGM’s Indamex reveals [routing] changes,” Connor told the Journal of Commerce. “Hapag-Lloyd’s vessel Nagoya Express, after calling Port Qasim on May 1, was due in Nhava Sheva on May 3 but diverted south to Colombo [in Sri Lanka] likely to transship Pakistani cargo to the AA7 or US4 services for the US East Coast.” The recent ocean freight yield for carriers out of Karachi has been higher than that of West India for USEC loads by $300 to $500 per container, which, for Hapag-Lloyd spot bookings to New York, stood at $3,285 per TEU and $3,533 per FEU as of Friday, industry data shows. Industry sources also believe those diversions could become a new source of transshipment gains for the Port of Colombo after the Red Sea-linked buildup.  Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .